The BBVA Research study center has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for all autonomous communities in 2024, given the good performance of employment and domestic consumption and the change in the scenario in interest rates, among other factors.
The entity attributes in its analysis to the Canary Islands the highest GDP growth of all Spanish communities, 2.6%, followed by the Balearic Islands and Madrid, with 2.5%, in both cases.
The forecast of employment growth that it establishes for the Canary Islands, also the highest, of 3%, coincides with the one granted to Madrid.
It has also taken into account the current reality of a more expansive fiscal policy, together with the push of service exports, as detailed in the latest report of its Regional Observatory.
The revisions have a greater impact on the most touristy communities, which, in line with what happened in 2023, will continue to lead growth in 2024, so the increases are greater than seven tenths of a percentage point in the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, the Valencian Community, Catalonia and Madrid.
The last three, it indicates, are also benefited by the good tone of non-tourist service exports.
Employment will grow above GDP throughout the country
It also considers that investment will continue to be affected by an environment of high interest rates, a less significant tractor effect than expected from the EU's Next Generation funds and uncertainty about economic policy, which leads to smaller revisions than the average in the northern communities.
In this case, the changes range between three tenths of a point in Castilla y León and six in La Rioja.
At the same time, it foresees that the good performance of goods exports will allow GDP growth in Aragon, the Basque Country and Galicia to be above the national average.
Another factor that has been taken into account is that the agricultural production of the southern communities continues to be affected, so the revisions are lower than the average and the expected growth rates are below the national average in Castilla-La Mancha, Andalusia, Extremadura and Murcia.
Just two months ago, BBVA Research revised downwards the growth prospects for 2024 for all the autonomous regions due to the then worsening of activity in the Eurozone, in addition to the fact that part of the industry was suffering from high energy costs.
In almost all communities, as in the country as a whole, the forecast of employment improvement is greater than that of GDP growth, a trend from which only Asturias, Castilla y León, Navarra and La Rioja are excluded.
