I recognize that I have been quite surprised by the referendum proposal of the Government of the Canary Islands, as I believe it has surprised the vast majority of the Canarian people, since, except for some isolated comments and from the opposition, there had been no other clue that could have made us suspect that this path was going to be chosen. In honesty, I think it is more the result of political opportunism and improvisation than of a conscientious process framed in a medium-long term plan to reject the explorations; a plan that, with a devoted people and institutions in agreement, seems evident that it should have been carried out and/or be known by all citizens.
In any case, the referendum proposal is good news for our people, and it is for several reasons, the first is that, if it is done, we could vote on a issue of vital importance for our territory, clearing up doubts about the position majority of the Canarian citizenship. It would also force all parties, associations, unions, groups, etc... to have a clear and unified position, thus avoiding the interested dissidences that, both in Coalición Canaria and in the PSOE-PSC have damaged the unity of the movement and its own image. In addition, with the referendum, the Canarian people would have the possibility of claiming for the second time their sovereignty over what takes place in their territory, and I say second time, since our legal representatives in the institutions have already exercised their right to speak for us, although it seems not to be enough for the Government of Spain.
However, this future, so flattering at first glance, seems to crumble when we see the reality that awaits us in the days and months to come. The Minister of Environment, Arias Cañete, has taken little more than 24 hours to warn that the consultation is not viable, and it is evident that we will have one of the greatest enemies of exercising this process in our beloved Minister of Industry José Manuel Soria, fearful of losing his alliance with the multinational Repsol and especially of giving electoral credit to Paulino Rivero, for whom he professes a personal hatred. Only with these two pieces of information, it seems unlikely that the President of the Spanish Government, who has already shown himself to the world as a convinced anti-democrat, contradicts two of his Ministers (for now), and gives the green light to the referendum process. If we add to this that, despite their enormous differences, an acceptance of the consultation in the Canary Islands could set a precedent (more media than legal) to others such as that of Catalonia, it seems, if things do not change much, that the referendum in our land is closer to being a chimera than a reality.
So, the next thing we should ask ourselves is what will happen if Spain gives us a refusal to decide? As I said at the beginning, the proposal seems to be framed within Paulino's campaign for re-election, but, despite this, I hope it is solid enough to have foreseen a reaction to a more than possible prohibition. And, having reached that hypothetical point, what will the Canarian Executive do?
On the one hand, it could revive the confrontation with Madrid, straining the situation and calling the referendum even without having constitutional and jurisdictional protection, which would be throwing away Paulino Rivero's objective in the last half year of legislature with the meetings with the King and Mariano Rajoy.
The other option in the face of refusal would be to limit itself to presenting a frontispiece of disillusionment, and disagreement with the decision, but in short, to bow its head and abide by the refusal from Madrid; running in this last case the risk, given the proximity of the start of the explorations and the disregard of state and European institutions to our petitions, that the opposition in the Canary Islands to this environmental attack is diluted in a last failed attempt that supposes for the gallery the false maximum limit to which we could have opted for in our mobilizations, and behind which the Canarian Government hides to expose that he did everything that could have been done.
I hope I am wrong, and that the not at all suspicious of democratic, Government of Spain gives viability to a referendum that is a triumph for all Canarians, especially for those of us who have actively mobilized in the process. Or that, at least, in the case of a refusal, the Canarian Government stands up, and is capable of executing a plan that does not drown popular demands and that gives solid alternatives to paralyze the explorations.
I don't know which of the two hopes is more illusory, I just wish we don't find ourselves before the chronicle of a death foretold.
Borja Rubio
