More than 24 hours after the results were confirmed and pending a resolution from the JEC regarding the issue of the Cabildo councilors, we can glimpse certain possible governance agreements for the next legislature.
If we apply Mancur Olson's logic of collective action, which states that small coalitions have an easier time achieving their objectives if they share interests and produce beneficial results for the coalition, we can deduce the following possible agreements in the different municipalities and institutions of Lanzarote.
If the possible withdrawal of the three Cabildo councilors given to Ciudadanos, Somos, and Lava is fulfilled, to be distributed among the three majority parties (CC, PSOE, and PP), we can say that we have a very likely agreement between CC and the PP. This agreement is interrelated with the results obtained by both parties in the capital city, where Astrid Pérez could occupy the mayor's office from CC, in exchange for her support for San Gines' candidacy for the Cabildo.
Astrid Pérez's interests in achieving the capital consistory would be based on two clear objectives. Firstly, to achieve a period of governance that strengthens her image and her share of power within the Lanzarote PP. We must bear in mind that, until now, only the PP of Tías had managed to maintain the PP's dominance in any of the island's institutions, thus becoming the flagship of the management offered by the party. So much so that, after two terms, Pancho Hernández managed to ascend and access the parliamentary list. A clear sign that he was gaining greater relevance and obtaining greater shares of power at the expense of Astrid Pérez. Secondly, governing Arrecife and achieving an improvement in the situation suffered by the capital city would be a clear victory for Astrid, who would also have the support of the Cabildo to carry out investments in various areas. This would further distort the government of Eva de Anta, while also torpedoing the image of Loli Corujo, who supported the former's candidacy. This could result in an increase in electoral support in the following elections for the PP, at the level of the Cabildo and other consistories.
San Gines' interests are more evident: to revalidate his mandate and continue occupying his position in the Cabildo. The cession of the mayor's office in Arrecife is a lesser evil when we compare the level of economic resources available to the Cabildo of Lanzarote and the City Council of Arrecife. We are talking about 188 million euros (2018) and 58 million euros (2017, extended), respectively. This situation of "economic strength" gives San Gines an effective lever against his opponents in the various island municipalities. On the other hand, his right-hand man on the island, Echedey Eugenio, can always occupy relevant positions in the Arrecife City Council, which translates into a very significant capacity for influence within the consistory.
Therefore, we can see how the Cabildo-Arrecife tandem shares interests, with different objectives. Furthermore, both are the most relevant institutions on the island, so governing in them means enjoying a position of power that can offer many advantages against their political adversaries during the next 4 years.
In Tías, it is easy to observe that there is a technical tie between one bloc and another, with Lava, led by Mame Fernández, being the hinge party capable of giving governance to one side or the other. In a position of strength like that, any political actor with clear interests and objectives could request a relevant position from one of the two parties, in addition to other types of concessions in terms of public policies or proposals to be made.
From here, the analysis of the viability of the different agreements must be approached from two different perspectives. First, the ripple effect that the criticisms carried out by Mame against the activities of the PP can cause. These will affect her image if she reaches an agreement with said party. When you are in the opposition and criticize the ruling party, you must always bear in mind that your votes may come from discontent on the part of the voters, and that betraying that discontent can lead to a debacle of your image in the next elections. And every political actor wants to maintain their share of electoral power. Second, derived from the previous argument, Mame might be more interested in a new government, without 8 years of management behind it and that cannot produce a decrease within its voters. This government would be based on an agreement with the PSOE and Podemos, who would enter the consistory after 8 years in the opposition, which avoids the contagion of political and electoral wear and tear suffered by the parties after several terms with evident signs of exhaustion in terms of management.
In the cases of Teguise, Tinajo, and San Bartolomé, there is a majority of CC for the first two and of the PSOE for the last. In Haría and Yaiza, the coalitions involve simple agreements where CC probably dominates in the first case, and in the second, where Lava enjoys choosing between so many suitors since it only needs one councilor to govern.
Alejandro Pérez O'pray, Political Science and Administration from the UNED.
