How many cows can eat in a pasture ensuring there is still pasture the next day? That is the question that was raised in the 18th century when talking about carrying capacity in livestock farming. The old debate is back in the spotlight in 2023 to talk about tourism. Will Lanzarote have space for tomorrow if tourist arrivals continue to increase?
In 2022, a total of 2.8 million tourists arrived. Only 156,189 inhabitants reside permanently on the island. Therefore, the floating population, those who use the territory while residing elsewhere, is much larger than the resident population. Based on the latest published data, there are five residents for every 100 tourists annually. Experts estimate that the resident population will continue to increase, while tourist figures have returned to pre-health crisis levels derived from the coronavirus.
"That is the million-dollar question," jokes Moisés Simancas, Professor of Geography and History at the University of La Laguna. "Calculating the concept of carrying capacity is very complex, and now it is used as a kind of magic wand for measuring." In this line, he emphasizes that the concept cannot only be about determining the occupation of activity in physical space.
The tourism phenomenon goes beyond arrivals. To know its real impact, it is necessary to know how many people arrive by plane, how many by ports, what is the floating population, what is the resident population, how much energy is spent, where they stay, how much water is consumed, how many discharges, how much pollution, and how many infrastructures are used, and if the territory has the capacity to face it all with the least possible environmental impact. In addition, Simancas adds one more concept to the debate: the psychological carrying capacity of the resident population.
According to data provided by the expert, in the Canary Islands, 1.8% of the territory is occupied by tourist accommodations. In that space, 90% of travelers, 85% of technologies, and 83% of establishments are concentrated.
"In the Canary Islands, we have long exceeded the carrying capacity," says Emma Pérez Chacón, Professor of Geography and History at the University of Las Palmas.
"The impacts of tourism are not only direct but also indirect and induced," adds Simancas. "In the Canary Islands, we have long exceeded the carrying capacity, which occurs when you consume more than you have available. For example, if you cannot treat waste, you have exceeded the carrying capacity," continues Emma Pérez Chacón, Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.
Lanzarote, a Pioneer in Environmental Protection
The environmental struggle led by César Manrique began in the 1970s and resulted in unprecedented legislative and theoretical progress not only in Lanzarote but throughout the Archipelago. Despite the fact that tourism growth continues to rise in 2023, Lanzarote was a pioneer in studying the term carrying capacity in depth.
In 1991, the Island Territorial Planning Plan (PIOT) was presented on the island by the president of the Cabildo, Enrique Pérez Parrilla. Even then, the criteria for understanding how the island's capacity was exceeded had been determined. At that time, many buzzwords were discussed that still resonate today: floating population, tourism saturation, ecotax, and territorial limit.
"The first tourism moratorium proposed in the Canary Islands was in Lanzarote. In the 1980s, an excess of tourist land had been classified due to an expectation that was never going to be met," narrates the Professor of Geography and History at the University of La Laguna.
A year after the death of the multidisciplinary artist, in 1993, Lanzarote applied to be a Biosphere Reserve.
The legacy of Manrique and the island government team that accompanied him, then led by Pepín Ramírez, had leaned towards harmony between nature and architecture rather than the construction of new infrastructures to cope with the increase in population and tourist arrivals.
Among the projects promoted were the Centers of Art, Culture and Tourism (CACT), where César Manrique had created spaces for reflection in nature supported by a work team.
Between 2001 and 2004, the search for new lines of action from the Cabildo of Lanzarote led to the creation of the Life - Lanzarote Biosphere project. In the form of a book, this work collected surveys from citizens and tourists. Would they pay one euro per night as part of an ecotax? The respondents answered yes. The same survey asked what to do with the money obtained: not build more hotels and preserve the environment.
"Lanzarote has already been evaluated and set a precedent," adds Pérez Chacón. However, despite the theoretical advances, images of tourists bathing in protected spaces where it is prohibited, such as the Jameos del Agua or the Charco Verde, the long queues to access the Timanfaya National Park, or the growth in recent years of tourism in La Graciosa, have raised social alarm.
In this sense, the Professor of Geography and History at the ULPGC, Emma Pérez Chacón, emphasizes that theoretical planning, legislation, and surveillance are fundamental to address the island's environmental problems.
"In Lanzarote, we know why our island project has failed and why the carrying capacity has been exceeded," reveals Irma Ferrer, a lawyer specializing in Urban Transparency from Lanzarote. In this line, she insists that the debate is much larger: the climate crisis and how the survival of the Canary Islands, and in particular, Lanzarote, is "on the ropes."
Where are we going?
If current consumption continues, the Canary Islands would need 73 archipelagos like this to survive, according to figures provided by Pérez Cachón. In this line, she points out that, despite the fact that in the Islands "there is 42% of protected space, the rest has already been used 50% in just two decades," she emphasizes.
Despite the historical advances and the struggle of César Manrique since the 1970s to diversify the island's economy, in islands like Lanzarote, the dependence on the service sector accounts for almost 60% of GDP. According to data provided by the Minister of Tourism of the regional Executive, Yaiza Castilla, in the last Tourism Commission held in this legislature, 35% of the Gross Domestic Product of the Archipelago depends on tourism.
In addition to the problems derived from the increase in the resident population and visitors, the forecasts of how climate change will affect the Canary Islands do not bode well. A study prepared by the Government of the Canary Islands and released in May 2022, warned that in Lanzarote could lose in the worst scenario up to 36 kilometers of coastline due to climate change in 2050. Puerto del Carmen, La Santa, Arrecife, Famara, Playa Honda, Arrieta, Costa Teguise, Las Caletas, El Golfo or La Graciosa are the coastal towns that would suffer the greatest impact.
Among the affected spaces are towns such as Punta Mujeres, Arrieta or La Caleta de Famara, the Las Caletas power plant, beaches and tourist accommodations that could disappear or suffer floods. "The debate now is survival," emphasizes Irma Ferrer.
"We forgot all those lessons and went towards a massive development of tourism," says Professor Simancas. Islands, so far further away from mass tourism, such as La Graciosa or the Islote de Lobos, were affected by the increase in the arrival of visitors. In the case of Lobos, an entry limit has been established. However, it has not been proposed in La Graciosa, where problems with waste management and water scarcity are increasing. "At certain times we are forgetting the reference threshold," Simancas points out.
Carrying capacity is measured based on two conditions: "finite resources in a limited territory," explains Irma Ferrer, a lawyer specializing in the environment and urban planning.
In addition, the lack of data is one of the major problems in addressing the island's carrying capacity. "We and the Canarian people in general lack data on the impact of the tourism industry on the islands. Transparent data that has a binding result," demanded the deputy of Sí Podemos in the Parliament of the Canary Islands, Paco Déniz, about this reality during his intervention in the Tourism Commission.
Air Pollution
Among the most debated topics in recent years is the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere due to the use of air transport, the most polluting in the world. The study Carbon Footprint of Tourist Aviation in the Canary Islands from the University of La Laguna states that the sun and beach tourism typical of the Archipelago "generates serious environmental problems."
Among them, the "increase in waste, the high pressure on fragile natural spaces or the depletion of scarce resources such as water." The emission of greenhouse gases is closely linked to transport. The burning of fossil fuels to achieve mobility, too.
"The air sector is the basis of the entire Canarian tourism strategy" and, at the same time, "one of the sectors with the greatest impact on climate change," the academic research highlighted. With data provided by the Ministry of Tourism of the Government of the Canary Islands, the carbon footprint of the islands, not including air or sea traffic, exceeds one million tons of carbon dioxide per year. Air traffic alone provides another 5.4 million tons.
Despite this, the Government of the Canary Islands has asked the European Union for an exception for the Islands in the green tax, which aims to penalize the use of air transport and promote other less polluting transport. The Canary Islands has requested that this tax not be applied to international flights in order not to harm the arrival of tourists.
In this line, the Minister Yaiza Castilla stated: "Its economic relevance cannot become an excuse not to act," she pointed out in the last Tourism Commission of this legislature.
The Impact of Constructions on the Habitat
"The next wars will no longer be for oil, but for water," adds environmental lawyer Irma Ferrer. The scarcity of rainfall led the Cabildo of Lanzarote to install a plastic raft in Alegranza last September dedicated to allowing birds to drink. In addition, Lanzarote and La Graciosa face serious problems in supplying themselves with water.
"In environmental conservation we talk about threats," narrates the delegate of SEO/Birdlife in the Canary Islands, Yarci Acosta. Among the most frequent threats faced by species is the fragmentation and destruction of habitat. This point is particularly important for this expert, so much so that any construction, from roads to buildings or power lines, prevents continuity between natural spaces.
For Acosta, a doctoral student in Biodiversity Conservation at the University of La Laguna, the loss of species such as the houbara, declared as strictly protected and in danger of extinction, comes from the degradation of the environments in which their life develops.
"When we talk about a species in danger of extinction, we are talking about that if there is no human intervention, that species could disappear."
"When we talk about a species in danger of extinction, we are talking about that if there is no human intervention, that species could disappear," points out the expert in Conservation. At this point, Lanzarote is an island that shines for being a steppe environment. Broadly speaking, steppe spaces are open agricultural and livestock environments, without steep slopes or with few trees. In these spaces, birds nest on the ground.
"The avifauna must have flow, be able to move between protected spaces," he asserts. For Acosta, the current development model fails. "Areas like Chinijo and El Jable are very fragile, but management is conspicuous by its absence."
