The Socialist Party would win the next elections to the Parliament of the Canary Islands again, according to the latest regional Sociobarometer made public by the UNED Gran Canaria Center. In addition, in the case of Lanzarote, the socialists would also surpass the Canarian Coalition this time, leading the nationalist formation by 7 points, which would suffer a significant setback.
In the last elections, the PSOE won the elections to the Cabildo of Lanzarote, but on the list for Parliament, CC obtained more support, with 32.6% of the votes cast on the island. However, according to this survey, that would change in May 2023.
The Sociobarometer gives a vote estimate to the PSOE in Lanzarote of 32.4%, compared to 28.9% obtained in 2019. As for CC, it would fall more than seven points compared to those elections, falling to 25.4%.
In number of votes, this would mean 17,197 for the PSOE and 13,481 for the Canarian Coalition, according to this survey prepared by the UNED in collaboration with the Government of the Canary Islands.
Regarding the translation into deputies, the survey leaves open a range of between three and four for the Lanzarote PSOE (currently has three) and between two and three for CC, which in the last elections obtained three.
PP rises and Podemos falls
The next most voted party on the island to Parliament would be the Popular Party, which would register an increase, going from 12.9% of the votes it obtained in 2019 to 19.1%. This would imply going from one deputy it currently has to two.
In fourth place would be Nueva Canarias, which would also rise from 5.4% to 7.8% of the votes, and could get a parliamentarian for Lanzarote, when it currently has none.
For its part, Podemos would fall from 8.2% to only 5.8% of the votes in Lanzarote and would lose its only deputy for this island.
As for Vox, it would increase its support in Lanzarote, going from 2.7 to 4.7% of the votes, but would still not get representation in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.
Regional results
Regarding the archipelago as a whole, the PSOE would be the first force and would obtain between 27 and 30 parliamentarians (for an absolute majority it would need 36). In second place would be the Canarian Coalition, surpassing the PP in deputies, although not in votes. The nationalists would obtain between 15 and 18 (far from the 20 they obtained in 2019) and the popular ones would rise to between 14 and 16 (currently they have 11).
Nueva Canarias would also return to the Regional Chamber, which could obtain between 5 and 7 deputies (in 2019 it obtained 5); and Podemos, which would fall from 4 to 2. Ciudadanos would be left out on this occasion, which in 2019 obtained two parliamentarians and now would not reach even 2% of the votes in the Canary Islands.
Finally, the Gomera Socialist Group, which currently governs together with the PSOE, NC and Podemos, would remain with three deputies.
For this survey, a total of 3,201 interviews were conducted throughout the archipelago during the month of October, of which 393 were conducted in Lanzarote. In the case of the data on this island, the margin of error given by the sampling is +/- 5.04, while in the data for the Canary Islands as a whole it is 1.77.
