The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) foresees a socialist victory in the regional elections on May 28. The victory would be greater than that obtained in the previous elections of 2019. The CIS predicts a rising PP that could become the second political force in the islands, while the Canarian Coalition would run the risk of losing a third of its voters.
According to the CIS pre-election survey, the PSOE will win the elections in the islands with a percentage of votes that will range between 29.7% and 36.3% (in 2019 it obtained 28.5%), followed by the PP, with a range of 17.2%-22.8% (15.01% in 2019); CC, with a margin of 13.2%-18.2%; Unidas Sí Podemos, with 7.8-11.9% (9.46% in 2009, also adding the 1.01% of IU, which then competed separately); and Nueva Canarias, with 4.2%-7.5% (9.18% in 2019).
Ciudadanos would sink from the 7.28% it achieved four years ago to the range that is now predicted for it, from 0.4% to 2.0%, and Vox, which to date has not managed to enter the Parliament of the Canary Islands, could double or triple its electoral support in the islands, to obtain between 4.1% and 7.4% of the votes (2.44% in 2019).
In the case of the Canary Islands, the CIS does not make a forecast of seats in this survey, due to the size of the sample (21,973 interviews) and to "the specificities of the electoral districts" of the archipelago.
