In the event that the modification does not occur, which is the most likely scenario given the dates we are in, it would be necessary to exceed 6 percent of votes at the regional level or 30 percent at the island level to have the option of obtaining a seat. In this case, the Socialist Party would have three parliamentarians and Coalición Canaria would also occupy three seats, plus the two from the Popular Party, which would obtain 17-18 percent of the votes, thus completing the eight seats that correspond to Lanzarote.
However, the PIL, which would be positioned as the third most voted political force, would not obtain any seats. This is due to the limits established in the current electoral regulations, which require a minimum at the regional level, difficult to achieve for the PIL, as it is an island party.
With modified law
A different scenario would arise if the law were modified in these months, since the electoral limits would be reduced to 3 percent for the regional vote and 15 percent for the island vote. In this case, and according to the same vote estimate, the PIL would obtain two seats, therefore, the rest of the formations would reduce their representativeness and while Coalición Canaria would be left with two parliamentarians, the PSOE would be between 2 and 3 members and the PP would debate between one and two seats.
With respect to the last elections, the socialists and nationalists would increase the percentages of votes by more than five points. The popular, on the other hand, remain with similar results. But the biggest variation is obtained by the PIL, which lowers the vote forecast by almost ten points, as happens to it, according to this survey, in the votes for the Mayor of Arrecife.
[The PSOE would be the most voted political force in Arrecife->9391]
[Manuel Fajardo would win without an absolute majority->9365]
