Tropical cyclones could be "increasingly frequent" according to one of the leading experts in Spain

Juan Jesús González Alemán, senior meteorologist at AEMET, also highlights that the "Hermine" storm could have caused a greater impact if it had arrived in better conditions

EFE

October 6 2022 (11:59 WEST)
Updated in October 6 2022 (15:16 WEST)
RGB air mass satellite image showing cloud cover over the Canary Islands AEMET
RGB air mass satellite image showing cloud cover over the Canary Islands AEMET

Juan Jesús González Alemán, PhD in Physics, senior meteorologist of the State at the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and one of the leading experts in Spain on tropical cyclones, spoke about "Hermine" and whether the storm that was recently present in the Canary Islands was an isolated event or one of the consequences of climate change. To this, the expert pointed out that there is "scientific evidence" that tropical cyclones could be "more frequent" and even have "greater approaches" to the Canary Islands, although he admits that so far "there is nothing clear about it."

Juan Jesús González has told EFE that "although it is a hypothesis to take into account, five or six years may pass, even more without clearer answers to the questions that have arisen after the storm." However, during this period of time, he does not rule out that "some other phenomenon" similar "may continue to affect us," the expert indicates. The PhD in Physics highlights that it is not only the archipelago, but that it could also affect the coastal areas that are on the peninsula.

The meteorologist highlights that, despite the lack of studies focused on the Canary Islands, conclusions can be drawn from the models used for the North Atlantic basin.

According to Juan Jesús, several published reports emphasize a greater activity of tropical waves in the future, with a stronger African monsoon. This would mean that tropical cyclones would move a little further north, thus increasing the chances of approaching the islands in addition to suffering episodes "much more intense."

However, other investigations point to an improvement in the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that tropical cyclones encounter when heading to Europe.

On the other hand, David Suárez, delegate in the Canary Islands of AEMET, together with Luis Cana, professor of the Institute of Oceanography and Global Change of the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, have recently published a divulgative article in 'The Conversation' about 'Hermine' in which they conclude that it will be increasingly difficult for tropical cyclones to form in the environment of the archipelago due to the increase in wind shear, this being a "key factor."

INCREASE IN CYCLONES DUE TO TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

The expert emphasizes the growth during the last ten years or so of cyclones with tropical characteristics, highlighting that it is increasingly likely that they will end up impacting the Canary Islands or the Peninsula.

One of those tropical conditions is the sea temperature, which according to the meteorological expert, is expected to increase in the Atlantic. On the other hand, there are the atmospheric ones (humidity, shear, instability, atmospheric dynamics), about which there is "greater uncertainty."

González Alemán points out that, generally, the Canary Islands enjoy unfavorable conditions for the advance of tropical storms although this does not mean that they cannot occur. The question is to determine if they are becoming more favorable and if it is related to climate change.

The expert points out that although his message may be "catastrophic," scientists "have the obligation to give the maximum information they have," he warns.

"HERMINE" COULD HAVE HAD A GREATER IMPACT

When talking about the possibility of whether in the archipelago, as in the Peninsula, there are possibilities of hurricanes of great intensity, as happens for example in the United States, he believes that "it is very unlikely" although he highlights that a tropical storm like "Hermine" if it had arrived in better conditions, "would have left a very notable, problematic and worrying impact taking into account the orographic conditions of the islands."

Juan Jesús González Alemán concludes by insisting that tropical cyclones require an in-depth analysis in addition to pointing out the uncertainty shared by his fellow hurricane experts.

 

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