The decrease in new cases of Covid has accelerated in the last week in Lanzarote and this Monday, the island already meets the parameters to lower its alert level, which was precisely extended this Sunday for one more week. We will have to wait for the next review of the levels in all the islands, but if the trend continues, Lanzarote will not only drop to level 3 but could soon reach the parameters to move to 2.
Since last week, the cumulative incidence at seven days had dropped from the risk level “very high” to “high risk”, which corresponds to level 3, according to the criteria set months ago in the Interterritorial Health Council. However, the incidence at 14 days was still at “very high” risk this Sunday, established from 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, although by very little. In fact, it was right at that limit, with 250.2, although this Monday it has already dropped to 221.9.
In addition, in the case of the incidence at 7 days, it has also continued to fall and is not even this Monday at “high risk” but at “medium risk” (equivalent to alert level 2), with 65.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (in the worst moments of this third wave it exceeded 400 at 7 days and 800 at 14 days).
This means that in this indicator, the island already meets the parameters to be at level 2, although there are eight indicators that are taken into account. And the alert level is established when there are two from block I and one from block II at a certain risk level.
This Monday, Lanzarote only maintains the incidence in people over 65 years of age accumulated in 14 days at very high risk; while at 7 days it had already been reduced. Even, last week it was at medium risk, although this weekend it has risen again to “high risk”, after new positives have been confirmed in older people.
The other indicator that has improved is the hospital pressure in the ICU, which had been at “very high” risk for weeks and this Monday is at “high risk”.
In total, of the eight indicators that are measured, Lanzarote only has one at very high risk this Monday (incidence at 14 days in people over 65), three at high risk (cumulative incidence at 14 days, incidence at 7 days in older people and ICU occupancy), two at medium risk (cumulative incidence at 7 days and occupancy of beds on the ward), one at low risk (positivity, which is the percentage of tests that are positive of those that are carried out) and another at minimum risk (traceability, which are the cases that are assigned to an outbreak as a result of the tracking work). And considering the current evolution -if the incidence in older people does not continue to grow or the cases do not increase-, it could be the case that the island reaches the next review with less than three indicators at high risk, which would mean meeting the parameters to lower not only to level 3, but to level 2.
However, even if this were the case, it is unlikely that a jump of two levels will be authorized, and the foreseeable thing is that one will be reduced and it will be analyzed again in the next review of the Government of the Canary Islands.
With regard to the accumulated incidence, Lanzarote is at very high risk from an average of more than 27 cases diagnosed per day (it had more than 120 on some days); and at high risk from 16 daily cases, which is a figure that is not being reached in recent days. That is why the incidence at seven days has already dropped to "medium risk", while the incidence at 14 days is still at "high risk", which is the last to drop.
To be at "low risk", which would be equivalent to alert level 1, the island would only have to have an average of between 2 and 5 cases per day.
