In his speech during the 6th edition of the Foro Global Sur 2025 , the renowned futurist Gerd Leonhard, whose work consists of helping companies and organizations understand what is to come, offered a vision on the future of Lanzarote in the age of AI, highlighting the current uncertainty and the rapidity of change.
Leonhard described 4 simultaneous revolutions that we are experiencing, comparable to a moment of great changes like 1968, where the future "comes suddenly":
• Geopolitical Revolution: The end of the "Pax Americana" drives Europe to unite more, emphasizing a collective humanism.
• Digital Revolution: Everything that can be digital and automated will be, allowing technological "miracles" such as solving cancer or unlimited energy through nuclear fusion in 15 years. However, he emphasizes the need for good governance to ensure that technology is beneficial, comparing it to the ability to create a nuclear power plant or a nuclear bomb with the same energy.
• Sustainability Revolution: After a prosperous but destructive industrial era, it is imperative to become ecological. He warns that if you are not "green" by 2030, people are "going to hate you", and that the new generations (25-45 years old) who come to positions of power will demand this change. As an example, he mentions the paradox of Aramco, the Saudi oil company, being the one that makes the most money despite polluting the planet.
• Purpose Revolution: Young people (under 35 years old) are not only looking for economic benefit, but also a greater purpose related to the planet and peace, marking a change from the previous generation focused on growth.
The futurist also pointed out a "counterrevolution" that looks to the past, which is worrying.
Regarding the business world, he stated that "business as we know it is dead or dying" and that continuing with this model will lead to collapse in 10 years, due to technology and climate emergencies.
The future, according to Leonhard, is not about being right-wing or left-wing, but about whether something is "good or bad" for everyone.
He emphasizes the urgency of the situation in Lanzarote, where the change is not gradual but exponential. In 10 years, the power of technology will multiply exponentially, leading to a world "a million times more different". The two main existential challenges are how to manage climate change and energy, and what to do with intelligent machines. The calimas are an example of a growing problem in Lanzarote, which despite not growing so much in frequency, its intensity has multiplied by five, and although you cannot change what other countries do, you can mitigate and adapt.
If you work, learn, think or act like a robot, a robot will take your job
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a platform that will transform everything. He predicts that 67% of routine jobs can be automated (teleoperators, drivers, receptionists, translators). AI can be "heaven or hell": it can lower costs in healthcare, but also eliminate human decision. AI will change the interaction with the client in tourism, going from a search engine to a response engine, where AI agents will be able to book rooms in seconds.
Leonhard distinguishes between "augmenting" (machines that help us to be better) and "automating" (machines that replace us). He warns that if the work is 90% routine, you have a serious problem, and that we must learn different things. 80% of the jobs in 10 years are not yet invented, and 50% of the new jobs will be online.
Education, the main purpose of a country
He proposes that education is the main purpose of a country. He criticizes that they continue to teach what was important 10 years ago, such as programming, when machines can program themselves. The important thing is to understand people, be creative and have a real connection. He advises young people in Europe to understand humans, technology and speak English. Routine work will be done by machines, being "infinitely fast, efficient and 95% cheaper". The key warning is: "if you work or learn or think or act like a robot, a robot will take your job".
How Lanzarote can have a good future
He highlights the importance of the circular economy, where what is taken is returned. He applies this concept to Lanzarote, mentioning that the 3.5 million visitors do not return what they take, and we must reflect on how to give back to the culture, the environment and nature.
For a "good future" of Lanzarote, he proposes a political transformation. The money should be invested in the environment, nature, culture and climate, not in a collapsing system. He coins the term "tax for the future" (not just "eco-tax") that would go beyond ecology, covering people, housing, overcrowding and new jobs. This tax, which would be nourished by what tourists contribute, could generate 100 million euros a year and finance the climate emergency, transition to renewable energies, environmental protection and sustainable housing.
Lanzarote should aspire to be carbon neutral in 5 to 10 years, which is "totally possible".
Regarding tourism, Leonhard wonders how that money could be used in a circular way. People should come to Lanzarote because it is different and special, not for cheap tickets. He proposes a campaign inspired by Patagonia: "Come and see the difference in Lanzarote".
Finally, for this "good future", collaboration is needed between parties, companies and the population, as well as courage, clarity and daring. He warns against the mentality of "we can wait and see" or "we cannot stop tourism". The future exists first in the imagination, then in the will and finally in reality.
