Both companies and travelers have been waiting for two years for the long-awaited moment of the total recovery of the tourism sector, a moment that could be closer and closer, thanks to the good data recorded in recent months and the expectations for the summer, especially in the Canary Islands, one of the favorite destinations nationwide.
However, the recovery could be diminished by factors such as the increase in the cost of fuels, energy or goods and services as a result of inflation. Specifically, a report by the tourism lobby Exceltur, collected by the portal Hosteltur, has analyzed the key factors that will impact the recovery of tourism in the coming months, both for better and for worse.
The desire to travel and the end of restrictions, the main drivers
After two years of restrictions on mobility between European and long-distance countries, travelers can now move around the world without any problem, thanks to the high percentage of vaccination against Covid in the main issuing markets.
This has meant that many people who had planned trips during the pandemic period have more desire to travel than ever, which has boosted a reactivation of demand. Specifically, 84% of Europeans plan to travel between June and September and Spain is the favorite destination for 10.2%, according to the European Travel Commission.
In addition, airlines have put their batteries and have increased air connectivity, which already exceeds 2019 levels in markets such as the Canary archipelago. This has led to the Canary Islands becoming the second autonomous community that has invoiced the most compared to 2019, before the pandemic, with a variation of 3.5%, only behind the Balearic Islands, which reached 3.6%.
Without going any further, staying in Lanzarote already costs 14 euros more than before the pandemic, with a price of 86.67 euros per night, compared to 72.77 euros in 2019, which has led them to enter, together with good occupancy data, almost four million euros more, according to the ISTAC Tourist Accommodation Survey.
The reduced impact of the fall of the Russian issuing market towards Spanish destinations due to its low presence in the high season (2.5% of foreign tourism revenues) has also influenced. However, Exceltur warns of the attractiveness of competing destinations closer to the conflict in Ukraine, such as Turkey, which until May had increased the influx of British and German visitors by 24.5% and 7.8% more than before the pandemic, respectively.
Inflation, the great threat
On the other hand, the greatest slowdown factor that threatens the tourist recovery is the pressure of inflation on goods and services, but also on energy prices that have not stopped increasing in recent months. From Exceltur they maintain that "this situation will prolong the decline in business margins in companies in the sector".
This would also lead to a potential application to the new sector agreements, which could intensify the rise in wage costs, thus damaging the profitability and debt reduction capacity of many companies. In addition, inflation would also impact the tourist spending capacity of households and businesses, including the price of oil for travel, which as a whole would even exceed wages.
Another factor that would affect the tourist recovery of Spain and, especially of the Canary Islands, would be the progressive return of trips abroad, which was at 65% in the pre-pandemic era. It is important to mention that during the coronavirus crisis travelers began to bet on a more national tourism, predominating sun and beach destinations such as the archipelago.
Finally, with a decrease in purchasing power, it is to be expected that tourists will opt for more economical destinations, such as countries where their currency has devalued against the euro, as is the case of Turkey, which would mean significant savings for travelers.
