The Spanish tourism sector will grow by 2.8% in 2025, according to the Alliance for Tourism Excellence (Exceltur), which thus lowers its previous forecast by half a point due to lower domestic demand and the weakness of some key source markets.
The GDP of the Spanish tourism sector in the summer months (third quarter) grew by 2.8%, compared to 3.3% in the second quarter, which consolidates the trend towards moderation in the sector.
Exceltur's quarterly report "Tourism Perspectives," presented this Tuesday by its executive vice president, Óscar Perelli, also points to the continued deceleration in the growth rates of sales for tourism companies in the last three months of the year to 2%, below the 2.8% of the summer and 4.5% of the second quarter.
If these forecasts are confirmed, and despite being a positive record, the dynamism of tourism would be at the average levels of the Spanish economy (an increase of 2.6%, according to the Bank of Spain, and 2.7%, according to the Government), Perelli pointed out.
With this trend similar to that of other sectors, a stage of normalization opens up, and tourism ceases to act as a key driver of the real growth of the Spanish economy, after its contribution was 52.6% between 2021 and 2024.
The value of tourism's contribution to the Spanish economy will reach 13.1% this year, with 219,068 million euros, 4,862 million more in real terms (eliminating the effect of prices) than in 2024.
Slowing Employment: "Not seen since the pandemic"
The rates of tourism job creation at the close of September have fallen below those recorded in the Spanish economy, with an increase of 2.1% (48,442 new affiliates) compared to 2.7% in other sectors, "something that has not happened since the pandemic," Perelli pointed out.
Restoration accounts for most of the loss of dynamism in tourism affiliation, while leisure activities reflect their strength, as does accommodation, which continues to create jobs above the increase in sales.
Likewise, Perelli highlighted a notable increase in wages agreed upon in collective agreements for all sectors linked to tourism (+3.7%), which guarantees an improvement in the purchasing power of tourism workers, as it is 1 point above inflation (2.7%).
Among the key factors that have influenced the moderation of summer results is the slowdown in the growth of the volume of trips and nights spent by foreigners and especially Spaniards.
Added to this is a slight and widespread decrease in the average stay, reflecting both the weakening of demand and the growth of short trips linked to the use of second homes, due to increasing flexibility in work.
However, the positive dynamic of spending has been maintained, especially in foreign tourism, linked to the improvement of prices, particularly in facilities and companies that have invested in the renovation and repositioning of their products.
The greatest slowdown is occurring in urban hotels, affected by the lower volume of getaways due to the high temperatures, with a rebound in revenue of just 1.5% on average and some of the main cities in negative territory (Valencia, Barcelona, Alicante, Málaga, Granada and Las Palmas de Gran Canaria).
Also in transport companies, as the response capacity of some of the large air and rail infrastructures is exceeded due to the increase in mobility and the lack of investment in facility improvements, and in leisure activities.
Weakness of some key issuing markets
A growing weakness in Germany, Italy, Central Europe (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland), and France has been offset by the dynamism of the United Kingdom, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, and the long-distance Asian (China +12.5% and Japan +11.3%) and Latin American (+6.8%) markets.
For its part, the United States has relaxed its dynamism (+2% in the summer), compared to the double-digit growth recorded in recent years, affected by the depreciation of the dollar.
National demand in travels within Spain has stagnated, except for top-tier products, while travel abroad is growing again (+13.4% in spending, according to the Bank of Spain).
Practically all vacation destinations have closed out a summer better than that of 2024, with an increase in revenue (+8.9%), which is largely explained on the coast by the rise in prices (+7.3%), while occupancy has advanced only 1.5%.
