That there will be no absolute majorities in the Cabildo after the next elections in May 2007 is practically a fact, and it is not even necessary to use polls to confirm it. However, the polls do ...
That there will be no absolute majorities in the Cabildo after the next elections in May 2007 is practically a fact, and it is not even necessary to use polls to confirm it. However, the polls do serve to draw the panorama that the island may face after those elections, and to guess to what extent it will be complicated or not to resolve.
Specifically, the survey published this week by La Voz de Lanzarote, conducted by the Instituto de Opinión Perfiles and commissioned by the Socialist Party, confirms a trend already shown by other surveys, giving the victory to the Cabildo to the PSOE, but also provides other keys that, in reality, are what will make the difference.
Because ultimately, as has happened in Catalonia, for example, the important thing is not only who wins, but how the rest of the parties are left and what combinations can be made with the results in hand. And according to this survey, the Socialist Party would only need the support of a single force to be able to govern. Something that, in the current and fragmented political situation in Lanzarote, is no small feat.
On the contrary, and always according to this survey, snatching the Presidency from the PSOE would not be an easy task. On the one hand, because at least three parties would have to agree to present a motion of censure to Manuel Fajardo. On the other hand, because precisely among some of those parties there are theoretically irreconcilable differences.
In this scenario, it would be practically impossible to re-edit a nationalist pact like the one sealed at the beginning of the legislature, between Coalición Canaria and the PIL and with the support of the PP. And it is that although precisely these three forces could add up to the necessary number of councilors, the truth is that it currently seems impossible for Dimas Martín's party to agree again with CC after the experience lived in this legislature. Especially because, in addition, it would mean agreeing with those who have abandoned their ranks to join Coalición Canaria, and who have also expelled them from the Government Groups of the Cabildo, Arrecife and Teguise.
Thus, if this option of a pact between what would be the second and third force were discarded, the panorama would become even more complicated to dislodge the PSOE. And it would be necessary to count on Alternativa Ciudadana, which until now has not wanted to enter into the politics of pacts and that, in case of doing so after these elections, it seems unlikely that it will do so together with the PP and the PIL, or even together with the PP and Coalición Canaria, which would be the other option. In addition, for one and the other formula, and especially for the second, the numbers would be tighter, according to this survey.
For all this, and with the due distance that must be taken from the pre-election polls, the data would be doubly favorable for the PSOE, because not only would it win the elections, but it would also be very difficult to snatch the Presidency. Obviously, anything can still happen, because the time of alliances always holds surprises, and especially because the polls have the value they have, and more so when it is still unknown who the candidates of some of the parties that will compete in the polls will be. But with these figures in hand, the pacts that would appear as most logical are only two: the old and well-known PSOE-PIL, or the current PSOE-CC. And although neither alliance has been a bed of roses, the socialists would have to opt for one of those two options, unless they want to opt for the risky path of a tripartite that should include the Popular Party and Alternativa Ciudadana.
Although for now, everything is hypotheses and unknowns in a political panorama that is more than complicated, in which the last word will not be had by the citizens with their votes, but by the politics of pacts that prevail after May 27.
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