The gross domestic product of the Canary Islands will grow by 2.3% in 2026, for the first time in recent years below the national average (2.4%), as a consequence of a relative slowdown in tourism compared to other economic sectors, according to the latest Regional Observatory of BBVA, published this Tuesday.
BBVA already perceives an "exhaustion of the contribution to the growth of foreign tourism," which directly impacts its forecasts on the behavior of the economy of the two archipelagos, which lose one point of growth compared to 2025Specifically, it forecasts that the Balearic Islands will go from growing 3.2% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026, and the Canary Islands, from 3.5% to 3.2%.For the **Spanish** economy as a whole, it forecasts that **private consumption** will drive the advance of activity this year, with a greater impact in the Mediterranean regions and Madrid, as well as Castilla-La Mancha and Galicia, which will grow above averageIt also expects that **housing investment will accelerate**, more so in communities with greater imbalances, as well as a **moderation in non-resident consumption** that will affect tourist communities, with a greater impact on the islands
It also anticipates that the **slower-than-expected restructuring** in the **industry** hinders recovery in a large part of the north, especially in areas most dependent on the **automotive sector** (**Navarre, Aragon, and Castile and León**), although greater diversification and/or specialization towards defense goods could allow for progress closer to the average in the rest of the north.
The BBVA analysis specifies that the Valencian Community will continue to benefit in 2026 from the investment effects of the support measures for recovery after the DANA, whose progressive exhaustion would reduce growth the following year, and that in the Community of Madrid, exports of non-tourism services and investment, especially in intangibles, will be a differentiating factor.
For 2027, it points out that the progressive recovery of European demand and investment incentives can favor exporting communities of goods and that, if tariff uncertainty is reduced and a reformist momentum is consolidated in the eurozone, the boost in exports and increased defense spending can benefit the exporting autonomies of the northern Iberian Peninsula.
Add for the next exercise that the recovery of the industry, especially the automotive sector, could boost growth in the north, with greater benefit for Aragon and Navarre), while tourism could grow below GDP, which may affect the relative performance of the economies of the two archipelagosIt also points out that the south-central region and the Mediterranean, more dependent on consumption, could register somewhat lower increases in 2027, in an environment of moderation in the growth of domestic demand
In accordance with these considerations, the BBVA Regional Observatory establishes the following growth estimates for 2025 and forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in the different autonomous communities:
