The volcanic eruption that began ten days ago in Cumbre Vieja continues to show the Strombolian mechanism that has been recorded so far but with a more effusive character compared to previous days, especially in the emission center of the northern flank, and the ash cloud could affect air traffic between La Palma, Tenerife and La Gomera this Wednesday. This was reported at a press conference by the spokeswoman for the scientific committee of the Canary Islands Volcanic Emergency Plan (Pevolca), María José Blanco, director of the National Geographic Institute (IGN) in the Canary Islands, who appeared together with the technical director of the Plan, Miguel Ángel Morcuende.
María José Blanco explained that the eruptive process continues to show - and may show - episodes of increased and decreased activity, and although the Strombolian explosions have ceased in recent hours, she warned that it is possible that they may restart abruptly in time.
She also indicated that yesterday Monday a new lava flow began from the northern flank with a higher emission rate. She detailed that this runs over previous lava flows, so it advances faster and has reached the center of Todoque, being at an approximate distance from the coast of about 2 kilometers. In addition, the estimated volume of the cone generated so far is 10 million cubic meters (m3) of lava.
María José Blanco pointed out that from 08:00 to 18:00 yesterday Monday there was a sharp decrease in the signal of volcanic tremor and from 18:15 different events began to be recorded, first an intense degassing with columns of water vapor of whitish color, followed by an emission of ash in the main crater. From 19.15 hours began the emission of lava flows from the northern flank with the important appearance of a lava fountain, which is indicative of Hawaiian activity.
According to Blanco, all these observables are justified by a drop in the level of magma inside the conduit of the eruptive center that has caused a temporary blockage, and the unblocking of this conduit has led to the emission of water vapor and ash and the subsequent increase in volcanic tremor and lava emission. In turn, the morphology of the cone continues to change repeatedly due to the successive processes of growth and reconfiguration.
Meteorological conditions
Regarding the meteorological conditions for the next 24 hours, Aemet predicts that below 1,000 meters northeast winds will continue to blow with intensities of between 25 and 40 km/h, which may be stronger on the southeast coast and on the northwest slope of La Palma. On the west slope of the island the influence of breezes will continue in a diurnal cycle. Between 1,500-3,000 meters, the flow will be of northern component and, above this level, a weak west component wind is expected.
María José Blanco explained that due to this distribution of winds at altitude there has been a cloud of ash and sulfur dioxide (SO2) that is moving towards the south and southeast of the Archipelago. She added that in its displacement it is possible that it could affect the airspace between La Palma, La Gomera and the west of Tenerife, without ruling out that fine ash could reach La Gomera, mainly, and the west of Tenerife.
At the end of the term of this forecast, added the spokeswoman, it is likely that the ash cloud is with a north-south disposition, which may affect the island of El Hierro, and added that the presence of a marked thermal inversion and weak winds at low levels are unfavorable conditions from the point of view of air quality.
According to the Aemet forecast, rainfall is ruled out in the next 24 hours and a low probability of weak rainfall at the end of tomorrow's day, both in the north and in the east of La Palma.
Seismicity
Regarding seismicity, it continues to be located mainly at a depth of 10 kilometers and in the environment where seismic activity began on September 11, but some superficial earthquakes are also recorded in the environment of the emission center. The deformations continue to maintain a stabilization of their horizontal components and a decrease in the vertical component.
On the other hand, the emission rate of SO2 into the atmosphere has suffered a marked decrease and is now around 567 tons per day, and the emission of gases and ash reach and exceed 5,200 meters in height.
