"In principle, there should be no eruptions in Lanzarote, but I wouldn't dare say it's very difficult for them to occur." This is how the technical manager of Geoparque, Elena Mateo, responded to the question that may arise on other islands after seeing the situation that La Palma is experiencing, with the eruption of the volcano in Cumbre Vieja.
According to her, the type of volcanism in Lanzarote "may be similar" to that of La Palma due to "the type of materials," but the main difference lies in the age of each island, which makes an eruption less likely here. "Lanzarote and Fuerteventura are the oldest, and what predominates are the phenomena of erosion and wear, not growth," she emphasizes.
However, she insists that although it is "quite improbable," no scenario can be ruled out. In fact, she recalls that the last eruption in Lanzarote was in 1824, and that one "theoretically shouldn't have happened" due to the island's age at the time. "It was the exception," she points out, reiterating that another one cannot be completely ruled out. She emphasizes that "only 200 years" have passed since then, which "in terms of geological history is not a long time." "It might be easier to answer that question in La Gomera, because there is no record of eruptions there in thousands of years," she adds.
However, she emphasizes that currently in Lanzarote "there is no sign of anything imminent in the short or long term," although she also acknowledges the "difficulty in predicting this type of phenomena." In the case of La Palma, the signals began to be detected only eight days before the volcano erupted.
"Maybe next week there will be signs of an eruption in Lanzarote, but as far as I know, that's not the case," she adds, referring to all the factors that make that possibility difficult, on an island that is already "in a cooling phase." Furthermore, she highlights that "if nature decided, we are a fairly monitored island, with enough instrumentation that warns through certain signals, such as deformation, seismic activity, or gases."
"In Lanzarote, the necessary instruments are deployed through various organizations and institutions to notice it if it existed. If those precursors were activated, which are the ones that warn that a volcano has stopped resting, it would trigger," she explains.
No island action plan
Regarding whether there is an island action plan in case that scenario arrives, she admits that there isn't, despite the fact that in the latest update of the Canary Islands Volcanic Emergency Plan (PEVOLCA) in 2018, it was recommended that several islands should have that document, including Lanzarote. However, none have yet approved it, and the reference plan remains PEVOLCA itself. "It would be interesting to have it, especially now, when things happen from one day to the next," since it "enriches the document or the strategy that has to be carried out with the eruption," the technician points out.
Furthermore, regarding the difficulty in predicting this type of phenomena before the signals begin, she recalls what happened a decade ago in El Hierro. "No one thought that a volcano could erupt there; it was also a surprise in its day," she recalls. In this regard, she also explains that there is "another world within volcanology, which is submarine volcanoes."
"For many years, without instrumentation, there has been no knowledge of them. Thanks to technology, we were able to monitor the one in El Hierro," the technician states. In the case of Lanzarote, she recalls that "in addition to the surface part, there is a submerged Lanzarote, which can also register volcanoes" and therefore must also be monitored.
La Palma, only in yellow traffic light when the eruption began
Regarding what has happened now in La Palma, the indicators went off eight days before, with the so-called "seismic swarm," which totaled more than 700 earthquakes in the Cumbre Vieja area. However, when the volcano erupted, the island was still with the yellow traffic light, so it went directly to red, without even passing through orange.
In this regard, Elena Mateo states that this is not "unusual" and that "it is not necessary to go through all the levels before the eruption." "I saw, through streaming, the meeting they had with the neighbors that lasted almost three hours, and there they explained very well the possibility of raising the level from yellow to red," the technician notes. "The fundamental problem of the orange traffic light was the evacuation of the population and what that implied, and the records they had at that time did not indicate that the eruption was imminent," she adds.
In fact, even at that moment it was suggested that "there didn't have to be an eruption," and in any case, it was not expected to occur last Sunday. "It took everyone by surprise," Mateo points out, who believes that "something had to happen to precipitate it earlier than they thought."
However, she highlights that the eviction was finally done on Sunday and "without any problems," since it has not caused personal injury. "Not being a very fast lava flow, it allows you a power of maneuver," she specifies, also warning that that flow has not yet reached the area where there are more homes, and where it is expected to cause even greater material damage.
The ash cloud "should not" affect Canary air traffic
Another doubt after the eruption of the volcano in La Palma is whether it will affect air traffic both on that island and the rest of the Canary Islands, especially after the precedent of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, whose ash cloud caused the closure of the airspace of most of Europe. Elena Mateo explains that this happened because it was an explosive volcano, and that explosiveness causes the material it releases to be "crushed." "The more explosive it is, the higher the smoke column will be," she details, pointing out that in principle that is not happening in La Palma.
"Whether it is explosive or not depends, most of the time, on whether the magma encounters water on its way. Water is the worst of all," she relates, clarifying that this occurs when the contact occurs in the volcano's chimney, not when reaching the sea. "In Iceland, the water came from the melting of a cap that came from a glacier," she explains.
In the case of La Palma, given the distance from the sea to the volcano, she considers that the only possibility would be that the water from the water table would enter the eruption system." "There we would have a problem," she warns. However, she points out that she "doesn't believe" it will happen, because "it is usually in the first moments of the eruptions." Therefore, she considers that that ash cloud "is not going to influence air traffic," which in fact remains open even on the island of La Palma itself.
In any case, she recalls that "the wind must also be taken into account," since a strong wind could displace that cloud - as even reporters who were doing live broadcasts from La Palma have suffered - and affect the airport of that island. In any case, she also sees it as unlikely, since "there is the barrier known as the Cumbre Vieja ridge," which in principle would prevent the cloud from moving towards that area, and emphasizes that "if it happens, it would be locally," without affecting the air traffic of the rest of the archipelago.
