"In the coming decades, the Earth will experience significant changes, which will affect ecosystems and the population in various ways," begins the study prepared by the Earth and Atmosphere Observation Group (GOTA) in the Canary Islands of the University of La Laguna (ULL) on climate projections for the Archipelago for the next century.
This projection has been made taking into account three decades: one in the present (1995-2004) and two in the future (2045-2054 and 2090-2099). To estimate the climatological changes, two different scenarios have been taken into account according to the different emissions of greenhouse gases: a more optimistic scenario where renewables have been implemented and progress has been made towards sustainability, compared to a reality where the burning of fossil fuels continues and there is no change of model.
One of the researchers of this work, Juan Pedro Díaz, reveals that to elaborate this analysis they carried out high-resolution models that were projected every three kilometers "to have information that is useful later to design adaptation and mitigation plans to the possible impacts of climate change."
As the climate models that are executed worldwide "are not useful for the Canary Islands", the Ministry of Ecological Transition has financed its own for the Archipelago. "Doing this type of modeling to obtain adequate climatic conditions is "almost 200 times more expensive than modeling the entire planet 100 kilometers", explains Juan Pedro Díaz.
"The Canary Islands have particularities that make them very different from continental scales. For example, microclimates. The existence of microclimates is something normal and habitual, fortunately, in the Canary Islands," he exemplifies.
Rise in temperatures
Several points can be extracted from the study of the Future Projections of Temperature and Precipitation in the Canary Islands. Among them, the consequences of climate change in the rise of temperatures in each of the four seasons of the year.
This increase in temperatures, which will occur in all scenarios from the most optimistic to the least, will be aggravated if the production of fossil fuels is not tackled. If the current model continues, the average temperature in summer would go from the current 18 degrees to 20, between 2045 and 2054, as well as to 21.8 degrees in 2090-2099.
In scenario number two, with a percentage of greenhouse gas emissions similar to the current one, summer in Lanzarote will suffer an increase of three degrees at the end of the century; 2.6 in spring; 3.1 degrees in autumn and 2.7 degrees in winter.
Meanwhile, the implementation of renewable energies, as well as other measures to contain climate change, pose a more positive scenario. The temperature would increase with respect to the current one, but in a more moderate way. It would go from: 1.5 degrees in summer; 1.3 in spring; 1.3 in autumn, and 1.3 in winter.
Not all areas of the island will suffer the climatic effects in the same way. In this case, the areas closest to the coast would be more affected by an increase in temperature and solar radiation. For example, according to the forecast made by this study, the point of the island that would suffer the most from the average increase in temperatures would be Puerto del Carmen, with 24 degrees of average annual maximum in the middle of the century.
In addition, the aforementioned study foresees for Lanzarote an average of maximum temperatures of up to 23 degrees per year in Yaiza, Arrecife or San Bartolomé or spaces of Tinajo. While between the end of the last century and the beginning of the current one, the average maximum temperature ranged between 20 and 22 degrees.
Meanwhile, the rest of the island will be around 21 degrees. If the climatic consequences can be delayed, an increase in heat could be avoided in the capital of Lanzarote or in Teguise, but also in spaces such as El Golfo or La Geria.
In the rest of the island and according to this projection, the areas further north will suffer less from the rise in maximums, but will register higher values than until now. The least hot point being the Chinijo Archipelago and Órzola by a very slight difference with respect to other areas.
No place on the island escapes this increase in heat. Between 1994 and 2004 the average minimum temperature of Lanzarote was 15 degrees in inland areas, rising to 18 and 20 degrees as it approached the coast. Precisely, it will be the coastal areas where a greater rise in the thermometer is expected, varying up to three degrees in comparison with inland areas. In the worst case scenario, a greater rise in temperatures would also affect areas of Lanzarote further away from the coast.
In addition, the minimum temperature will also increase in the Chinijo Archipelago, which will experience a progressive increase in temperature.
The average annual temperature forecast for the end of the 21st century is 18 degrees in the best climate scenario and 19.6 in the worst. The same occurs with the forecast for the middle of the century, in the most unfavorable scenario it would be 17.7 degrees and in the best 17.3.
Rain, the absent actor
The lack of rain will also be a fundamental actor in the future of Lanzarote, as revealed by this climate projection. It will rain little in the best and worst of scenarios, as it already does. For this reason, the islands that will notice the lack of rain the most will be the high areas of the most mountainous islands, so Lanzarote or Fuerteventura will not notice the change so much. But the desert landscape and drought will continue to be established.
Regarding the rainfall prediction for Lanzarote, the coastal area that runs from Costa Teguise to Playa Blanca will be the most affected by the scarcity of rainfall in the predictions for the mid and late century. As the years go by, this lack of rainfall will also be extended to more inland areas, which will not collect more than 500 millimeters annually.
Wind and solar radiation
Regarding the average wind speed, the entire eastern slope of Lanzarote as well as Alegranza will suffer average winds of five meters per second. The predictions reflect more spaces in the east affected by the wind on the island from Órzola to Playa Quemada, as well as Los Charcones. In the aforementioned points is where more wind is expected for the middle of the century.
Regarding solar radiation, the island will never be less than 240 W per square meter per year. The areas where the influence of the sun will be most intense will be: Yaiza, San Bartolomé, Arrecife and Teguise.
* The research has been done with a multidisciplinary team of work that combines the Earth Observation Group and the Atmosphere of the Department of Physics of the ULL and the experts of the supercomputer Teide, which belongs to the Technological Institute of Renewable Energies of the Cabildo de Tenerife. It can also be consulted interactively on the website enabled by the Government of the Canary Islands.
