After experiencing in August its biggest drop in more than a decade, the benchmark for most mortgages in Spain has maintained its downward trend and has managed to end September with a monthly average below 3%. This is its lowest level since November 2022.
Specifically, the 12-month Euribor ended the ninth month of the year with an average of 2.936%, compared to 3.166% recorded the previous month, 3.718% recorded half a year ago and 4.149% in September 2023, signing its sixth consecutive monthly decline. This decrease, of more than one point, will mean a sharp reduction in variable mortgages that are due for review.
According to the real estate portal idealista.com, for an average mortgage (of 150,000 euros over 30 years and with a spread of 0.99% + Euribor), the fall in the Euribor will mean a saving in the monthly payment of about 107 euros per month, and almost 1,300 euros per year.
The decline that the Euribor is experiencing is directly related to the interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).
In June, the ECB announced the first cut in the price of money in the eurozone in eight years, of 25 basis points. And in September it announced another one of the same intensity. In addition, the market expects at least five additional cuts by the end of 2025, which should also drag down the mortgage indicator.
In recent weeks, the first downward revisions of the forecasts for the 12-month Euribor are arriving. In recent weeks, the analysis department of Bankinter, the research service of CaixaBank and the Funcas Panel, a consensus formed by analysts from banks, research centers and institutes, companies and the employers' association, have improved their forecast.
According to their calculations, the Euribor could be at the end of the year between 2.6% and 2.8%, while during 2025, and provided that the ECB continues to lower the price of money, it could be between 2.1% and 2.5%. Looking ahead to 2026, it could resume the upward trend, to around 2.75%.
