Madrid, the Mediterranean regions, the Balearic and Canary Islands will lead economic growth in 2026 driven by tourism, service exports, and increased non-resident consumption, according to BBVA's Regional Observatory for June.
The report, published this Wednesday, anticipates that the GDP of Spain as a whole will grow by 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a greater role for domestic demand, employment, and residential investment as the main drivers of activity.
It points out that the northern communities, with a greater industrial and export weight, show greater exposure to the deterioration of the external environment, affected by rising energy costs, weak European demand, and tensions in supply chains.
In more detail, it notes that the dynamism of service exports, both tourist and non-tourist, and the safe-haven effect compared to other competing markets affected by the war in the Middle East, boost the Community of Madrid (2.7% in 2026), the Balearic Islands (2.6%), and the Canary Islands and Catalonia (2.4% in both cases).
The good tone of private consumption supports growth in the south-central region, and thus, Murcia and Castilla-La Mancha (2.5%) could show GDP increases above average, while aid to support those affected by the DANA and storms at the beginning of the year, along with tourism, continue to support growth in the Valencian Community (3.0%) and Andalusia (2.6%).
Aragon (2.2%), Castilla y León (2.2%), and Extremadura (2.1%) continue to suffer from industrial sluggishness, although they show better performance in recent months thanks to the recovery of job creation and goods exports, while other communities remain affected by setbacks in exports and industrial production at the beginning of the year.
This scenario, along with a lower dependence on services and immigration, justifies GDP growth in 2026 below average in Navarra and La Rioja (1.8%), Asturias and the Basque Country (1.9%), Cantabria (2.1%), and Galicia (2.2%).
Add La Voz de Lanzarote as a preferred Google source.
Stay informed with the latest current news.
