Meteorologists from eltiempo.es and Meteored have warned of the arrival of a tropical cyclone in the Canary Islands next week due to a tropical wave or easterly wave from the interior of Africa, which could lead to a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic this weekend, according to current forecasts.
This tropical cyclone could follow an unusual trajectory since, while the most normal thing is for these cyclones to advance in a westerly direction, towards the other side of the Atlantic, it seems that this system could move north and have a short journey as a tropical system.
In this regard, eltiempo.es specifies that, although the current forecast does not indicate that the cyclone is heading towards the archipelago, there may be significant changes in the coming days. In fact, they indicate that in the latest update the probability that the tropical cyclone formed during the next weekend will head towards the Canary Islands has been reduced and is now less than 5%, when previously it was more than 10%.
However, it adds that although the cyclone does not directly affect the Canary Islands, some effects could be noticed due to its relatively close presence, such as an increase in cloudiness and waves, as well as a thermal decrease that ends the high temperatures that are being recorded in the archipelago this week.
"In less than a week, a low pressure trough, possibly a tropical cyclone, could be generated in the south of the Canary Islands, and present an anomalous trajectory, approaching the archipelago more than usual," adds Francisco Martín, an expert from Meteored.
Martín details that the cyclone would originate from an active African easterly wave, one of the main synoptic systems that occur during the summer season in northern tropical Africa and the northern tropical Atlantic. These are important waves that extend westward and leave downpours that sometimes cause major impacts in Africa, being devastating. In addition, these waves are often precursors to tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic basin.
In this context, he explains that between September 11 and 13, a tropical cyclone could develop in the south of the Canary archipelago due to one of these active easterly waves, which is developing over central-northern Africa and may jump to the Atlantic.
These types of cyclones usually move towards the interior of the tropical Atlantic and trace an initial trajectory towards the west. In contrast, the predicted cyclone could be short-lived, being located adjacent to the African coast while moving north, perhaps remaining south of the Canary archipelago (it cannot yet be said that it will affect the islands).
As there is still no broad consensus, some global models are not warning of this cyclone. In fact, the specialized hurricane center (NHC) of Florida has not offered any prediction in this regard. Therefore, if it were to occur, Meteored indicates that it would be an anomaly within the Atlantic tropical cyclones that usually develop in September from African easterly waves and that, while moving towards the Atlantic, the Antilles or North America, experience a tropical cyclogenesis, so it would be a rare and short-lived tropical system.
What is a tropical wave?
A tropical wave is an unstable area of relative low pressure that occurs in the tropics, which usually has associated cloud developments and storms. Its displacement is from east to west, following the circulation of the trade winds. Upon reaching the ocean, if conditions are favorable, they can organize a closed circulation and form tropical storms or hurricanes. They are responsible for most of the major hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The evolution of this forecast faces a meteorological situation of great uncertainty in the North Atlantic due to the presence of Hurricane 'Larry' and its future evolution.
At the moment, 'Larry' continues to move through the central and western Atlantic, while moving north. There it will interact with a wind maximum linked to a trough in its extratropicalization process (conversion to a "normal" storm).
In turn, the low pressure center of southern Greenland and Iceland will break the pattern of the high latitude anticyclone, which will force the Azores and Bermuda anticyclone to be located further south and west. This could open a corridor to the east of the anticyclone that would temporarily cause tropical lows to emerge from Africa towards the north, bordering the coast.
