The PSOE would win the elections in the Canary Islands again with between 30 and 33 seats

The PSOE would win the elections in the Canary Islands again, with between 30 and 33 seats of the 70 that make up the regional Parliament, above the 25 it obtained in 2019, and could re-edit the pact with its partners, according to the fourth wave of the Sociobarometer of the Canary Islands, published this Monday.

This survey, which is carried out every six months by the National University of Distance Education (UNED) in Gran Canaria, grants five to seven seats for Nueva Canarias (now it has 5), three to the Agrupación Socialista Gomera (ASG, the same as at present) and two for Podemos (for 4 that it achieved in 2019).

Regarding the rest of the parties, Coalición Canaria and the Partido Popular would compete for second place and the leadership of the opposition, since the UNED estimates for the nationalists between 15 and 18 seats, below the current 20, and for the popular between 14 and 16 (they have 11), although both tie at 18.5% in voting intention.

According to this study, neither Ciudadanos, which obtained two seats in 2019, nor Vox, which does not currently have parliamentary representation, would obtain any regional deputy.

In this way, the parties that make up the regional Government extend their advantage in the islands, while PP and CC fight for second place at a considerable distance.

The voting intention of the PSOE stands at 31.5%, compared to 18.5% of nationalists and popular, followed by NC, with 11.4% and Unidas Podemos, with 7.3%. Vox would be at 3.7%, below the 4% barrier, which would leave him out of the hemicycle.

By island constituencies, the survey gives the victory to the PSOE in all, except in La Palma and La Gomera.

In the first case, CC maintains its leadership with the socialists very close, while on the island of Colombia Casimiro Curbelo consolidates its clear preponderance. The fourth deputy of La Gomera would fall to the PSOE, as since 2015.

As for the regional list, the Sociobarometer carried out by the UNED of Gran Canaria, gives the PSOE four of the nine deputies in dispute, one more than in 2019, a representative that Podemos could lose.

CC would stay in two, a decrease that would benefit the PP that would obtain two seats, while Nueva Canarias would retain the seat in this constituency.

The people in charge of the survey, under the technical direction of the sociologist and tutor professor of the Center Juan M. del Río Alonso, have warned in any case that all these estimates should be treated with caution "given the electoral distance and the lack of candidates".

According to them, seven months before the appointment with the polls, there is no social, political and economic context that largely determines the electoral results and, in addition, the electoral coalitions that may be formed for the elections in May of next year are still not clear, something that could change the final meaning of the vote.

As for the leaders, the survey keeps President Ángel Víctor Torres as the best known and the only one who approves in valuation with a 5.2.

The rest of the leaders of the main political formations of the archipelago do not achieve approval, although all are above 4 in a valuation from 0 to 10.