The territorial delegate of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) in the Canary Islands, David Suárez, has granted an interview to La Voz de Lanzarote to explain the situation of the Atlantic archipelago in the face of the increase in adverse meteorological phenomena due to climate change and the power of science to warn of their arrival to the islands.
The islands are a fragile territory that, due to their geographical location and subtropical climate, are exposed to adverse phenomena from different continents: America, Africa and Europe. In this century, the Canary Islands have suffered the passage of several isolated depressions at high levels (DANA), but also of tropical cyclones, such as Delta, in 2005, or Hermine, in 2022.
The difference between a tropical storm or a hurricane is the intensity of the wind, which is greater in hurricanes than in storms. "Within hurricanes there are five categories, depending on the level of the wind," he continues.
"We have had DANAS in the Canary Islands and we will continue to have them, they are a typical type of weather in the Canary Islands, which leaves precipitation. The question is to identify if they can have such an important potential as that of the Mediterranean basin, which we know historically is an area where DANAS are very powerful," says Suárez during the interview. The Aemet delegate in the Archipelago highlights that in the Canary Islands we have "other environmental conditions", although high-impact episodes such as the floods in Tenerife in 2002 have been recorded.
Despite these specific episodes, the territorial delegate of Aemet explains that their passage through the Canary Islands is not frequent, but that "we have to be prepared". Faced with the arrival of a phenomenon of this type, Aemet always issues warnings to alert the population and the authorities to take protection and prevention measures.
"We are exposed to many types of situations. We have the polar irruptions with those systems of extratropical cyclones or storms, the DANAS, which are the previous step to the formation of a storm, and we are affected by the African continental weather," adds Suárez.
Climate change
The influence of climate change on these phenomena is undeniable, but it is not the only reason associated with this type of phenomena. "We are in a climatic system that is altered by warming, we have more energy available and also a surface that may be warmer, but we also need there to be instability. If there is no atmospheric instability, nothing would happen," he adds in statements to this editorial team.
Science versus denialism
Regarding the denialist movement against science, boosted on social networks after the pandemic and revived by content creators and political parties during the Valencia floods, Suárez defends Aemet's role in forecasting. "Science advances and has advanced in recent decades and will continue to advance. Questioning science can always be dangerous" and continues warning that "it is not appropriate to deny scientific evidence." In this sense, he invites the population to go to official and reliable sources.
Regarding the Calima episodes, David Suárez explains that "from the 80s to the present there is a significant decrease in the number of days of dust events and also in duration
The probability of it happening
In addition, he explains that the State Meteorological Agency works with probabilities in the forecasts and that is why there are warnings of rain or storms, for example, that sometimes are not fulfilled. "The nature of the atmosphere is a chaotic system and, by definition, unpredictable and depends on the conditions of that moment. The probability indicates the percentage of occurrence, that is, if there is a 40% probability, it means that between 100 times, 40 would fulfill that forecast," he exemplifies.
In this way, the Aemet warnings start from "a degree of certainty" that goes from "unlikely or possible", in a percentage between 10 and 40%, a percentage of occurrence between 40% and 70%, and 70% when there is greater certainty. However, sometimes, in cases of high impact, the decision may be to issue a red warning even if there is a low probability as a precaution.
Suárez explains that "in the face of the impacts of climate change, there is no other option than, on the one hand, to look for adaptation measures and, on the other, mitigation measures." In this line, he points out that with the climate projections up to 2100 available, "what remains is to make an adequate management of what the future may be to, obviously, minimize those impacts."
The future in the fight against climate change involves transitioning to renewable energies and energy self-sufficiency. In addition, in the prevention part, he highlights the importance of acting in flood zones and taking engineering measures to solve certain problems, such as coastal floods and creating climate shelters against heat.
