The survey commissioned by Lanzarote Media and the Biosfera Group to the Técnicos en Socioanálisis consultancy on the electoral prospects in Arrecife shows the PSOE winning the elections, even improving its results in the island's capital, potentially reaching 7 councilors. This confirms the trend of what happened in the last General Elections on April 28.
The list headed by Eva de Anta would improve the 2015 result, going from 20.10% in the previous Local Elections to 24.90% estimated by the TSA survey, in a range of 6-7 councilors. For its part, Astrid Pérez's Partido Popular collapses, and even runs the risk of not even having its own group. According to this survey, the PP-CC alliance would be far from the majority of the plenary, losing between two and four councilors between both parties.
The Partido Popular is the most punished in the capital and could even be left without a political group, in its lowest range. Astrid Pérez experiences a loss of 18.68% of her own voters. This collapse leads the popular party to abandon the third position, to become the fifth force in votes. In this way, it could be left with only two seats or disputing the third councilor with Ciudadanos.
Ciudadanos on the rise and CC remains or loses a councilor
Precisely the orange formation is the one that experiences in the TSA survey, after the Socialist Party, the biggest rise. With respect to the previous electoral process, Rivera's party practically doubles the votes received, going from 6.2 percent of the votes to 10.2. This rise allows them to opt for a third councilor, as long as they beat the Partido Popular. Both formations are in a technical tie forecast.
Despite the increase in votes, Coalición Canaria goes from 17.8 to 18.8 percent. The nationalist formation would be at risk of losing one of the five councilors obtained in 2015. The increase in participation and the diversification of votes would cause this effect, with the nationalists aspiring to maintain their number of seats.
The Somos Nueva Canarias alliance, the third capital force
The Somos-Nueva Canarias electoral alliance aspires to be the third force in the Arrecife City Council, and the nationalist alternative in the capital could add up to four councilors, in its best version, with a prediction of 3-4, according to this survey. It would repeat the councilors of 2015, but between the two forces it could manage to add a fourth.
Lanzarote en Pie. Si se puede remains
In elections marked by the recent electoral contest in April, Lanzarote en Pie.Si se puede continues to maintain the reliability of its voters, with the violet formation maintaining its two councilors, or even obtaining one more in the remains, if luck accompanies them that night, with a small increase of one percentage point in Arrecife.
As happens in the rest of the national panorama, VOX does not enter Arrecife, remaining very far from that minimum 5% that is required to have representation in the city council.
A Lava is estimated to have 5.2 percent of the votes, but in the present survey the field data was taken in April, prior to José Montelongo's departure from the party, as well as Gladys Acuña's ineligibility to run in the elections, which could affect said result.
TECHNICAL DATA:
- SCOPE: Arrecife
- UNIVERSE: Over 18 years old.
- SAMPLE: 400 interviews, 342 effective.
- METHOD: Telephone interview.
- SAMPLING: Multi-stage random sampling by conglomerates and strata within the municipality by districts and neighborhoods.
- CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 95.5. ERROR MARGIN: +-5%
- FIELD WORK: From April 5 to 17, 2019.
- TECHNICAL DIRECTION: Técnicos en Socioanálisis SL (TSA)
