The CIS pre-election macro-poll released this Thursday gives the PSOE victory in the next elections in the constituencies of the Canary Islands, with double the seats of the PP, which Vox equals, while Unidad del Pueblo Canario (UPC) would reach up to 2 deputies and CC-Primero Canarias would be left without representation.
In Spain as a whole, the CIS survey gives the PSOE victory in the next elections with between 134 and 143 seats, and the PP and Vox ranges of deputies that in no case would add up to an absolute majority in Congress.
Of the fifteen seats distributed in the Canary Islands, the PSOE would obtain between 6 and 8; the PP, between 3 and 4; Vox, between 3 and 4; UPC, between 0 and 2; and CC-Primero Canarias, none, according to the forecast of the Sociological Research Center.
In the province of Las Palmas, the survey assigns the PSOE between 3 and 4 seats; the PP, two; Vox, two; and Unidad del Pueblo Canario, between 0 and 1.
In Santa Cruz de Tenerife, the PSOE would obtain between 3 and 4 seats; the PP, between 1 and 2; Vox, between 1 and 2; and UPC, between 0 and 1.
The figures for the Canary Islands as a whole result from adding the extremes of the provincial ranges. In Las Palmas, the last of the eight seats would be contested by the PSOE and UPC, while in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, where seven deputies are elected, Coalición Canaria would lose the seat it obtained in 2023.
In direct voting intention, 28.4% of those surveyed in the Canary Islands respond that they would vote for the PSOE in the general elections on November 29, 17.3% mention Vox, and 14.9% the PP.
6.6% opt for UPC, 3.4% for CC-Primero Canarias, and 2.1% for Se Acabó la Fiesta.
After Se Acabó la Fiesta, 0.3% of those surveyed in the Canary Islands declare that they would vote for Frente Obrero, 0.2% for PACMA, and another 0.2% for Drago Canarias Verdes.
These percentages reflect the spontaneous response of those interviewed to the question of which party they would vote for.
18.4% still don't know who to vote for
In the Canary Islands as a whole, 18.4% still do not know who they will vote for and 3% do not answer.
In Las Palmas, 29.2% declare they would vote for the PSOE, 18% for Vox, and 14.9% for the PP.
UPC gathers 6.5% of the responses and CC-Primero Canarias, 3% in the eastern province, while 17.4% of those surveyed in this province still do not know who they will vote for.
In Santa Cruz de Tenerife, the PSOE also leads direct voting intention, with 27%, followed by Vox, with 16.5%, and the PP, with 15.2%.
6% opt for UPC and 3.3% for CC-Primero Canarias.
The percentage of undecided reaches 21.1%, almost four points more than in Las Palmas.
Regarding the preference of Canary Islanders surveyed for who the next President of the Government should be, 30.8 choose Pedro Sánchez, 20.5% Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 16.8% Santiago Abascal, and 5.5% Gabriel Rufián.
The CIS conducted the interviews between October 7 and 30 with 2,010 people in the Canary Islands, 1,033 in Las Palmas, and 977 in Santa Cruz de Tenerife. The technical sheet places the margin of error at 2.2 points for the Canary Islands as a whole, 3.1 for Las Palmas, and 3.2 for Santa Cruz de Tenerife.
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