The association that groups the largest Canary Islands companies in the tourism sector, Excelcan, warns of a "soft landing" in the arrival of tourists to the islands and predicts that the archipelago will conclude the year with a figure that will "very slightly" exceed 18 million, 2% below 2025.
Upon releasing their latest report on the tourism business in the islands and its prospects, the president and vice-president of Excelcan, Santiago de Armas and José Carlos Francisco, have indicated that this year-end forecast includes tourist diversions that could favor the Canary Islands from the Middle East due to the conflict in Iran and from Morocco due to the crisis in Ceuta.
The study presented by Excelcan on the evolution of tourism in the second quarter of 2026 already corroborates this "soft landing" that they believe the arrival of tourists to the islands is experiencing, after the rebound produced in recent years following the tourism zero caused by the covid pandemic of 2020, by registering a decrease of 3.35% in international tourism between April and June compared to 2025.
Tourist spending, however, in this second quarter of 2026 has grown by 7.61%, stated the author of the report and director of the consultancy Corporación 5, José Miguel González, who indicated that employment in the sector has also increased by 2.40% to reach 233,020, although it decreases in relation to other sectors.
Furthermore, there has been a decrease in the average stay of 0.05% and in the number of overnight stays in tourist accommodations, with a drop of 1.95%, figures that rise, especially in total revenue in relation to the first quarter of this year, with -29.52% related to the end of the high autumn-winter season.
In any case, the vice-president of Excelcan has considered that "stabilization" has occurred in the sector, except in billing, where there may be increases, that the Canary Islands destination remains competitive, and that the fact that accommodation prices are increasing is "a good indicator".
The representatives of Exelcan have expressed their concern about the conflict in Iran and its repercussions on kerosene prices and its impact on airlines, due to the risk that they may have to rethink a restructuring of their routes for greater efficiency.
Francisco has emphasized that fuel accounts for 30% of the cost in an airline company and also that the positive aspect of this conflict, as well as the Ceuta crisis, is that tourists opt for safe destinations, which favors the islands.
Given the international situation and the phenomenon of tourismphobia, Excelcan has studied what a 10% drop in tourist arrivals would mean for the islands, despite being "a scenario that is very far from happening," the vice-president of the association stressed.
Thus, a 10% decrease in tourist arrivals would cause a 2.92% drop in GDP in the Canary Islands and a 4% decrease in employment, which would mean the loss of 40,000 jobs and a considerable crisis, he stressed.
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