The Euribor approaches 3%: How does the rise affect mortgages?

The euribor chains its third consecutive month of increases and closes May at 2.8%, consolidating a change in trend marked by the rebound in inflation and the impact of the energy crisis derived from the conflict in the Middle East.

Since February, the main reference index for variable-rate mortgages in Spain has climbed nearly 0.6 points, reaching levels not seen since September 2024, when the twelve-month Euribor closed at 2.936%.

The latest data on mortgage contracting in the Canary Islands is from March and shows a drop of 8.5% compared to the same month in 2025 in Canary Islands, remaining at 1,408 compared to 1,539 a year ago, according to data published by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

For Ricardo Gulias, CEO of the company RN Tu Solución Hipotecaria, the behavior of the euribor confirms the entry into "a phase of tension" driven by the geopolitical context and by new expectations of monetary tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). "I would not yet speak of a new structural upward cycle, but rather of a rebound caused by the war in Iran, by the sharp change in inflation, and by the increase in geopolitical risk," explains Gulias.

The evolution of the conflict in the Middle East, especially after the energy tensions generated around the Strait of Hormuz, has altered market forecasts on European monetary policy. The increase in the price of oil and gas has once again sent inflationary expectations soaring in the eurozone, and the market is already discounting new rate hikes by the ECB from June onwards.

"If the European Central Bank confirms a rate hike in June or maintains a very restrictive tone, it would not be unthinkable to see the euribor approach or even briefly exceed 3% during the summer," points out Gulias. However, he qualifies that to consolidate this scenario, it would be necessary to see "persistent inflation, prolonged energy tension, and a market convinced that the ECB will have to continue tightening its monetary policy."

The rebound in the euribor is already having a direct impact on variable-rate mortgages that are reviewed this month. For an average loan of 150,000 euros over 30 years with a differential of euribor +1%, the monthly installment could increase by around 60 euros per month compared to a year ago.

The expert considers that the highest risk situations are currently concentrated in certain mixed loans that are now entering their variable phase, although  he calls to avoid alarmist messages since many families already adjusted their financing during the previous upward cycle.