The European border agency, Frontex, estimates that the irregular entries, between October and the end of December, of migrants arriving in boats or canoes to the coasts of the Canary Islands will be between 11,500 and 16,000. This was reported by the newspaper El País, which has exclusively accessed a confidential report from the agency, which significantly reduces the alarm forecasts repeated by the Canarian Coalition and the Popular Party.
This figure is well below the data that the Government of the Canary Islands, led by Fernando Clavijo (CC), has disseminated in press conferences and statements in recent months. For example, last June, the regional president stated in statements collected by the Agencia Efe that a total of "70,000 migrants" Africans would reach the islands in the remainder of the year.
Even, the president of the Cabildo of Lanzarote, Oswaldo Betancort (CC), echoed these data when he declared the Social Emergency due to the situation of minors on the island and warned of the arrival of these 70,000 migrants, of which he estimated "almost 7,000" as unaccompanied minors.
To date, according to the figures published biweekly by the Ministry of the Interior, 30,808 migrants have arrived on the islands between January and September 30 of this year, a growth of 105.7% compared to the first nine months of 2023, but far from the forecasts offered by local authorities. If Frontex's forecasts are met to the upside, a total of 46,808 people would arrive in the Canary Islands by the end of 2024.
According to the information published by El País, if Frontex's forecasts are met, the arrivals of migrants through the Canary route in the last three months of the year would be between 34% and 52% lower than in the same period last year.
