The Canary Institute of Statistics (ISTAC) has updated its forecasts for tourist arrivals in the Canary Islands within the Statistics of Tourist Movements at Borders. For the entire winter season, the arrival of 9,840,720 tourists is expected, a figure almost identical to the previous year (9,844,289), representing a minimal variation of -0.04%.
The most determining factor of the campaign will be the collapse of Germany: a 12.6% decrease is projected, which will mean losing 214,000 German tourists compared to the previous year. On the other hand, the British market will maintain its hegemony, contributing 3,162,873 visitors (32.1% of the total, 0.9% less), while resident tourism from the rest of Spain will grow by 9.8% and will serve as a counterbalance to the German decline.
By month, the predictions reflect an irregular start at the end of the year. November will register a 1.0% year-on-year decrease, recording 1,614,320 travelers (compared to 1,630,932 in the previous period), while December will begin a change in trend with a slight increase of 0.3%, reaching 1,679,493 tourists compared to 1,674,349 in the previous year.
The start of the new year will maintain this trend of stability and moderate growth. January will consolidate the increases with a 1.4% rise and an estimated total of 1,629,170 arrivals (compared to 1,606,315 last winter), while February will continue the positive trend with a slight increase of 0.4%, reaching 1,571,835 tourists compared to 1,566,257 in 2026.
The campaign will culminate in March, which will be crowned as the month with the highest tourist influx of the entire winter, nearing 1.75 million visitors (1,742,020 people), which will consolidate a 0.7% increase compared to the 1,729,859 travelers received in March of the previous year.
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