The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts of the autonomous community of Canary Islands, which estimates a GDP growth in volume terms of 2% in 2024.
This forecast coincides with the central estimate of AIReF and is contained in the range of forecasts made by other organizations for the region.
At the national level, AIReF has lowered its estimate to 1.7% of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Spain for 2024, but maintains the reduction of the deficit to 3% of GDP as long as the measures against the energy and price crisis are withdrawn and the territorial administrations contain the increases in spending.
For its part, the nominal growth expected by the Canary Islands for the year 2024 is higher than that forecast by AIReF (6.6% forecast by the community and 5.2% by AIReF), given the greater growth estimated for the deflator.
AIReF highlights that the Canary Islands complies with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts that support it and the corresponding request for endorsement.
Likewise, the good practice advice regarding the inclusion of a comparison with other independent forecasts and the provision of information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as on the assumptions on which their forecasts are based, is complied with.
However, to facilitate the evaluation of macroeconomic forecasts, the good practice advice is reiterated in which it is requested that employment forecasts be included in terms of Regional Accounting.
