The geopolitical chessboard is once again shaking global markets due to the escalation of tension between the United States and Iran. Volatility in energy prices is returning, causing an immediate rebound in the Brent crude barrel, which already exceeds 85 dollars after registering a 2.5% increase this Tuesday and a significant 9% on the previous day.
The increase represents a 20% rise in price compared to the minimum levels reached at the beginning of this July. The increase has not yet been passed on to the pumps in Lanzarote, but it could be noticed in the coming days if there is no de-escalation.
The fuse was lit after US President Donald Trump reinstated the blockade on Iranian ships in this strategic waterway, also demanding a 20% tariff on other goods crossing the passage.
Added to this are the accusations by the United Arab Emirates of alleged Iranian attacks on two oil tankers in the area. The result: crude oil has chained together a 20% rally from its early July lows, wiping out the truce that Washington and Tehran had reached weeks ago.
European Stock Markets, tinged with red
The increase in the price of oil has fully impacted global equities, awakening the old specters of inflation. In Spain, the Ibex 35 leads the retreats on the Old Continent with a fall of more than 1%, losing the 19,300-point mark. Red numbers also extend to Frankfurt (Dax -0.3%), Paris (Cac -0.6%), and London (FTSE -0.2%).
On the Madrid stock exchange, the most penalized are stocks highly sensitive to fuel costs and consumption, such as the IAG airline group, Aena, and Inditex, which lead the losses.
In contrast, the beneficiaries are energy and defense companies such as Repsol, Naturgy, and Indra, which cushion the blow and are trading higher.
The pressure on energy prices comes at a delicate moment, just as investors are closely analyzing the next steps of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Market bets already assign a 50% probability that the body led by Kevin Warsh will execute a new rate hike this very month to contain inflation, a stance supported by recent statements from Governor Christopher Waller.
As a direct consequence, the profitability of sovereign bonds has rebounded: the interest on the 10-year US bond climbs to 4.62% and the Spanish one stands at 3.6%, levels not seen since the end of 2023.
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