The Association of Airlines (ALA) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) have made public the results of two commissioned traffic and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) studies, key to estimating the path of airport charges for the next five years
They estimate that "airport fees can go down, guaranteeing Aena an adequate profitability in accordance with current regulation".
Its air traffic forecasts in Spain point to 3.6% annually in the next five-year period from 2027 to 2031, which they highlight coincides with other studies such as that of the Airports Council International (ACI) which pointed to 3.7% annually (between 2022 and 2047) and ENAIRE's movement forecasts of 3.2% annually (2025-2031), excluding overflights.
The airlines estimate that airport fees may decrease considering the Traffic Forecasts until 2031, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), the Regulated Operating Costs and the investments proposed by Aena. These fees allow for adequate financing of the planned expansions and guarantee an adequate return for Aena's shareholders, in accordance with the LawThe International Air Transport Association (IATA celebrates the forecasts of air traffic growth in Spain of 3.6% annually between 2027 and 2031 published by the independent consultancy STEER.
“This projected growth is excellent news for Spain’s connectivity and for the economy as a whole. The air transport sector is a strategic driver for economic development, territorial cohesion, and international competitiveness. It contributes $172.9 billion to GDP, equivalent to 10.9% of the Spanish economy, and generates 2 million direct and indirect jobs," stated Rafael Schvartzman, IATA Regional Vice President for Europe.
According to ALA, air traffic "has been recurrently underestimated in the two previous five-year regulatory periods"."The CNMC itself has highlighted that said underestimation of air traffic has resulted in a very significant regulatory surplus in favor of AENA in the period between 2017 and 2024, according to the different annual reports published by the independent supervisory authority"
Concrete examples of underestimation provided by ALA
ALA explains that "between 2017 and 2024, excluding the pandemic years 2020 and 2021, actual traffic has been an average of 14.9% above forecasts".
"In 2025, 320.6 million passengers have been reached, with an increase of 3.9% compared to 2024. This represents 17.3% above the estimated 273.2 million".Furthermore, they explain that for 2026, "the CNMC has raised Aena's passenger forecast by 11 million and estimates that traffic will reach 334.3 million, 18.3% above what was forecast".According to ALA, for the first three quarters of 2026, the seat supply is already 4.4% higher than in 2025.
