The probabilities of an eruption in the Canary Islands in the next 50 years exceed 77%

The Government of Spain has updated the Civil Protection regulations on volcanic risks and establishes that the archipelago must apply them obligatorily upon exceeding the probability threshold for eruption set.

Juan Méndez Parque Nacional de Timanfaya
Juan Méndez Parque Nacional de Timanfaya

The Government of Spain has updated the Civil Protection regulations regarding the risk of volcanic eruptions. This directive, published this Saturday in the Official State Gazette (BOE), states that in the Canary Islands there is a 77.69% possibility of an eruption occurring in the next fifty years. 

This directive on volcanic risk aims to update the response and management of emergencies in the face of a natural event of these characteristics.

This regulation replaces and renders obsolete the previous directive which dated from January 19, 1996, thus adapting to the scientific-technical advances of the last three decades and updating all the information gathered by scientists over all these years.

Although regional and state levels are contemplated, the document establishes that Canary Islands must mandatorily apply this regulation upon exceeding the set eruption probability threshold (77.69% within a 50-year period). For its part, its application in the rest of the national territory will depend on scientific evolution.

The norm recognizes that volcanic crises can last for weeks, months, or years. Therefore, it calls for flexible operational structures, personnel rotation systems, good logistics, and planning that ranges from the pre-eruptive phase to recovery.

Likewise, among the updates, it is incorporated that the dangers do not only come from lava, but also from advanced direct and indirect risks such as gas emissions, pyroclastic flows, seismicity, ground deformation, the possibility of tsunamis, lahars, or impact on underwater areas.

On the other hand, clear criteria are established to define the areas of action during a volcanic crisis. These are the emergency zone (affected areas and exclusion zones), zones of indirect impact (ash, air quality, or essential services) and safety, logistics, and shelter zones.

This new Basic Directive for Civil Protection Planning against Volcanic Risk, proposed by the Ministry of the Interior, will come into effect the day after its publication in the BOE, that is, this Sunday, October 11.

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