On the night of November 7-8, 1826, one of the greatest natural disasters documented in the Canary Islands occurred, a storm that caused 298 deaths. Two centuries later, David Suárez, delegate of Aemet in the archipelago, wonders how a similar episode would be faced, with a much greater impact on much more populated islands.
The intense storm that would go down in the annals of History as the "Flood of 1826" affected Tenerife and Gran Canaria but caused greater devastation in the former, where, in addition to the death toll, it destroyed about 650 homes and caused the disappearance of the original statue of the Virgen de Candelaria, patron saint of the island.
A few days before the bicentennial, the territorial delegate of the State Meteorological Agency speaks in an interview with EFE about extreme weather events in the archipelago and about "how we prepare for a situation that can be complicated, how we organize ourselves and what personnel are available to face these types of events."
It is about seeing "how we work now to convey information not only about the phenomenon, but to activate an early warning to minimize impacts because the first objective is that there are no victims," reflects the meteorologist.
The Flood of 1826 occurred in a pre-instrumental era, even before the founding of the National Meteorological Service in 1877, so there is no scientific data from the episode except for some barometers, without a monitoring system as such.
Chronicles of the time and later studies indicate that a drop in pressure was recorded and that it could have been a system of tropical origin, with indirect data such as the geomorphological and sedimentary footprint of the runoff, and some observer of the time with previous experience in the Caribbean alluded to a rapid drop in barometers; that is, cyclogenesis.
It is a plausible hypothesis, since the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30 and has its peak activity between the second half of September and the first half of October, explains Suárez.
Recent examples that if tropical conditions are favorable they can deviate and reach the Canary Islands are 'Delta', in November 2005, and 'Hermine' in September 2022.
However, points out the territorial delegate of the Aemet, it is impossible to know with certainty if the Flood of 1826 was a tropical cyclone, but, he specifies, what seems clear is that it was a very important episode for the Canary Islands due to the number of victims.
"And if we put it in the current perspective, the question I would leave hanging is: what impact would a system of those characteristics have today, with current technological, informational, and administrative advances?", he wonders.
"How would it be classified today seeing the precipitation values and with greater exposure and much higher vulnerability, with overpopulated coastal areas, more exploited infrastructures, and roads full of traffic?", he continues in his reflection.
From a scientific approach, it is necessary to know the nature of the structure that will affect, and from the point of view of Civil Protection, the possible impact must be analyzed, and in this regard, it does not matter if it is a storm or a tropical cyclone; what is decisive is whether there will be wind gusts exceeding 120 kilometers per hour and precipitation above 60 liters per square meter in one hour; that is, the factors that indicate a red alert.
The impact is determined by the areas that the episode will affect and the time window in which it will occur, which configures the most probable scenario, and from there, a series of decisions are made that must be communicated "very well" to the different administrations, details the head of the Aemet in the Canary Islands.
This mechanism has improved a lot in the last 20 years, continues David Suárez, also indicating that meteorology has advanced "but it is not an exact science" and situations still occur "that can surprise us and in which we have to work, for example, on protocols for making quick decisions".
This is because if a red alert is issued 48 or 72 hours in advance, there is time to plan, but then it can happen that in a cyclone or a storm, "intensifications occur, related to the development of small structures" that affect more at a local level, as happened with 'Therese'.
However, the territorial delegate of the Aemet points out that a tropical cyclone "does not appear out of nowhere" and, he adds, even before it is born, "it is already being monitored."
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