It is known that municipal elections offer different dynamics compared to national, regional, and European elections. Cataloged as "second-order" elections, they maintain elements that make them unique at a comparative level by representing the space closest to citizens. However, the Canary Islands has another subsystem added to the municipal/local one: the island one. This should be treated as an exclusive and own space with dynamics differentiated from the others. Aspects such as the presidentialization granted by the obligatory investiture to the head of the list to the island government body, the essential territorial space provided by the island geography, and the capacity of the Island Councils to be the common institutions in resolving the demands and needs of all citizens, make the "island electoral arena" take on total relevance in the behavior of voters, and that public officials are more exposed to accountability.
Lanzarote is not exempt from this dynamic. The relevance that island issues take on means that the different councilors of the Island Council are continuously seen in the media, accentuating some aspects of political leadership. The island notoriety brings the politician both personally and professionally closer to the citizen, projecting image, brand, and discourse directly without intermediate levels. An example of this is the immeasurable prominence of the President of the Island Council, Pedro San Ginés, who today, with its pros and cons, is the political leader with the greatest relevance and media impact on the island (as evidenced by the data offered by MMI). Few escape, whether they are supporters or not of his political affiliation, that San Ginés is the candidate to beat in the next elections in May 2019, where all formations will try to activate a possible protest vote and punishment to his management. But in addition to the personification of the nationalist candidate, there are other leaders strongly positioned in the fight for the highest institution in Lanzarote. Dolores Corujo, candidate for the PSC-PSOE, is by all accounts San Ginés' kryptonite, and not only because she represents a formation that fares well in the latest state and regional polls (which may cause a certain "multi-level contamination"), but because her leadership profile is on par with that of the leader of the Canarian Coalition (CC). The autonomous parliamentarian and mayor maintains elements of a politician with the capacity to unite an electorate undecided by the accentuated fragmentation of the party system, and capture potential voters seeking to instrumentalize their vote in pursuit of the desired "end of the Pedro San Ginés cycle".
Thus, what is evident from the "island arena" of Lanzarote is a tendency towards homogenization of the profile of the two main candidates (without belittling the others and without yet knowing the potential that other candidacies such as the Nona Perera/Tomás López tandem or Astrid Pérez might have). However, this homogeneous leadership is diluted if one considers the great polarization that both Corujo and San Ginés have accentuated for some time now. The conflicts between the City Council of San Bartolomé and the Island Council, the multiple disagreements in the autonomous and local pacts, or simply the personal tension between the two, cause them to engage in an extreme struggle of discrediting and mutual rejection. However, and contrary to what many might think, polarization is in no case counterproductive, but, paradoxically, it can benefit both. In the first place, because by centrifuging the electoral competition they manage to empty the center, blocking issues that can be transversal and beneficial for other parties; in the second place, because the protagonism that the two candidates generate by themselves makes the frame focus on the Dolores vs San Ginés fight, attracting the so-called "floating spectator" in the media; by achieving this, they manage to mobilize the undecided towards dichotomous positions, that is, polarization acts as an informative shortcut for the majority of voters who have not decided their vote and seek informative simplification; finally, by monopolizing the discursive framework, the agenda is set and, therefore, the so-called "gatekeeping" is possessed, the ability to open and close it when desired.
Consequently, polarization would open a window of opportunity between political adversaries. Vertebrating the competition in two opposite poles increases the chances that citizens, when assessing their reasons for casting their vote, always have in mind one of the two options. Either because San Ginés convinces as a charismatic leader and good manager (fundamental elements at the local level), or because Corujo is the "savior" and the only one capable of removing CC from the island command, the truth is that it is a win-win strategy where the key element is concentrated on stopping at all costs the ultra-fragmentation of the electorate and possessing discursive notoriety.
In any case, this argument is simply a hypothesis of what may apparently happen in the next island elections. It would be illogical not to take into consideration that inevitably there are elements that affect the electoral competition, which in the case of Lanzarote mainly has to do with the transfers of similar or different votes between the municipal and island levels. A priori, the context of the capital shows a possible punishment to the PSC-PSOE of Eva de Anta, which could undermine the candidacy of Corujo to the Cabildo; and vice versa, a rebound of the nationalists of Echedey Eugenio in Arrecife can be beneficial in the island space of San Ginés.
All in all, it is clear that elections are scenarios of competition and strategy similar to horse races. Those who best interpret the context and the territory where the electoral struggle is going to take place are the ones who will position themselves in the first place of the starting line. On the contrary, those who are at the expense of the initiatives of others are condemned to absolute irrelevance. After all, you cannot vote for what you do not know. And Pedro San Ginés and Dolores Corujo are perfectly known.
Ayoze Corujo Hernández. Political Scientist, Political Analyst and Technician in Social Research and Data Analysis applied by the Center for Sociological Research.