The Association of the country's large tourism companies (Exceltur) has reported that the the Spanish tourism GDP has grown by 2.1% in the first quarter and the vbusiness sales by 4%.
Nevertheless, the improvement in revenue is accompanied by a sharp increase in operating costs (+9.0% oil, +8.1% energy and +7.0% supplies) derived from the conflict.
For the whole of 2026, Exceltur has increased its forecasts for tourism GDP growth in 2026 in Spain to 2.5%, compared to the latest forecasts from the Bank of Spain which put it at 2.3%.
The update comes as a result of the current context of conflict in the Middle East. Exceltur forecasts that more Spanish and foreign tourists will choose Spain due to its attractiveness and the safety of its offer, which would be equivalent to a two-point rise in tourism GDP equivalent to 4,239 million euros.
However, the effects effects negative economic derived from the price increase, the withdrawal of consumption and the affectation to the income of families and companies would mean a reduction of 1.9 points of Tourist GDP in 2026, equivalent to 4,045 million euros.
By regions, Exceltur highlights the expected growth in Castilla La Mancha (+8.2%) and Extremadura (+7.8%) due to the boost from proximity domestic tourism, along with the Levante destinations; the Valencian Community (+7.7%)
and Murcia (+6.3%), Balearic Islands (+6.0%) and, to a lesser extent, Canary Islands (+2.7%), thanks to the additional boost from the refuge effect.