Following the warning from the Bank of Spain in July, the main national economic body has ruled out that the Spanish real estate market is experiencing a bubble similar to the one in the years before the 2008 crisis.
However, it is working on the creation of its own analytical framework that will allow it to impose limits on credit standards should any signs of relaxation be detected in the future.
The institution points out that neither households nor the financial sector are showing the imbalances that characterized the bursting of the previous bubble, and that price growth is more a response to supply shortages than to credit overheating.
In its autumn Financial Stability Report, the Bank of Spain points out that prices continue to grow, but unevenly depending on the area, and that they are still close to 20% below historical highs.
The regulator highlights that banks have not relaxed their mortgage lending criteria and that families' financial situation is more solid than in previous cycles. Nevertheless, it acknowledges that the rigidity of supply in the face of high demand continues to put pressure on prices in strained areas.
In this context, Iñaki Unsain, CEO of ACV Gestión Inmobiliaria, agrees with the Bank of Spain's assessment and dismisses the idea that the market is experiencing a speculative bubble. In his opinion, "what is structurally failing is the supply of housing, especially in large cities, and that imbalance is what is sustaining the tension in prices".
Unsain values that the Bank of Spain is analyzing the application of limits such as loan to value or loan to income ratios, used in several European countries to moderate credit in expansionary phases. However, he warns that these macroprudential tools would have a limited impact on prices in the most strained areas due to the lack of supply.
The expert predicts a stabilization scenario for the next few months in most of the territory, with possible adjustments in secondary markets, unrenovated homes, or areas with low demand.
Instead, it considers that **areas with greater pressure will continue to register moderate increases** due to the imbalance between supply and demand.