The Canary economy has begun a path of moderation, pointing to an economic advance around 2% in 2026, close to the national average growth.
This is reflected in the Regional Economic Situation Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2025, prepared by the Official Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Services and Navigation of Santa Cruz de Tenerife and CaixaBank.
This forecast could be modified depending on the evolution of recent events in the Middle East which already point to the increase in the price of the barrel of oil and, therefore, to the additional cost in all productive sectors, especially in the outermost regions.
Furthermore, in annual terms, the forecast made by the Chamber was confirmed, which established the GDP growth for 2025 at 3.5%, above the average in Spain. This was possible thanks to the dynamism of consumption, the strength of tourism, and an intense creation of employment, in a context of population increase and general improvement in business activity, so that the Canary Islands were above the national average growth (2.8%).
The president of the Chamber, Santiago Sesé, insisted that the Canary Islands cannot afford delays or loss of opportunities like those that are occurring with the low execution of the Next Generation funds.
Regarding the investments announced by Aena, the president highlighted that “it is an opportunity to place our airport infrastructures at the level demanded by connectivity, tourism, and the competitiveness of the islands”, although he warned that past experience calls for caution. “We cannot allow what happened with previous DORAs to be repeated”, he said and announced that, “from the Chamber we will be extremely vigilant so that every promised euro translates into real works”.
In relation to the structural deficits in mobility and roads, Sesé highlighted the proposal recently submitted to the Government of the Canary Islands to explore the issuance of public debt suitable for the materialization of the Reserve for Investments in the Canary Islands. “It is a way that would allow mobilizing private resources immediately to execute the infrastructures that the Archipelago needs,” he explained.
For his part, the territorial director of CaixaBank in the Canary Islands, Manuel Afonso, highlighted the good data for 2025 in the Canary Islands economy and emphasized the increase in the contracting of mortgages in the last year. “We have signed close to a 44% more mortgages than in 2024. It is a very high figure, which reflects that, despite the difficulties regarding price and new construction, there continues to be dynamism in the sale and purchase of homes.”
The labor market registered historic highs in employment. Social Security affiliates in 2025 exceeded 967,275 workers, a figure that allowed reaching a new historic high. Meanwhile, regarding the fourth quarter of the year, EPA data show the existence of 1,043,600 employed persons, 19,900 more than a year ago (1.9%) and the highest figure in the historical series.
The unemployment rate fell to 12.63%, which is 1.27 points less than a year earlier, although it continues to be higher than the national average. Furthermore, and although female participation in the labor market continued to grow, unemployment rates among women throughout last year remained above the average, highlighting persistent inequalities in labor market integration.
The creation of employment was concentrated mainly in services and industry, with increasing female participation. “Despite this, the lack of labor was consolidated for the second consecutive year as the main factor limiting economic activity for companies,” said Santiago Sesé. In fact, 52% of Canarian companies state that the difficulty in finding professionals is the biggest obstacle they face.