Funcas' forecasts for the year 2022 point to a price increase for 2022 of 3.7%, with inflation highly conditioned by energy prices.
Their main scenario for this year is that of an oil price, which has recently risen above 80 dollars, falling to 75, and that the price of electricity would fall in spring, in line with the prices reflected in the futures markets. In this scenario, inflation rates would remain above 5% in the first months of the year before starting to fall, ending the year with an average annual rate of 3.7%.
In a more strained scenario, in which energy continues to become more expensive than expected, prices could reach 4.8%.
The prominence of energy in price increases keeps underlying inflation, which is more permanent in nature, at less worrying levels.
In 2021, the products that have registered the largest year-on-year increase in their prices have been oil, pasta, soft drinks, flours, baby food and milk. As for non-energy industrial goods, their inflation rate rose from 1.1% to 1.4%, the highest rate since June 2013.
Among the products with the largest year-on-year price increases are bicycles, plants and flowers, furniture and durable goods for indoor leisure. In the case of services, inflation rose by one tenth of a percentage point to 1.8%.
The components that registered the highest inflation rates were, on the one hand, hotels and national and international tourist packages, whose price increases registered in 2021 have only meant the recovery of pre-pandemic levels.