The bill for the month of May in Spain could be the last one presented with competitive prices and squeezing photovoltaic energy to accumulate negative hours and with contained demand.
Experts point out that solar energy could generate 50% of the total Spanish electrical system and point out that the price could be 40 euros per megawatt hour, before giving way to what will be the most expensive summer since 2022.
However, the paradox is found in the summer months because while April and May contain the price, the futures market presents a July month between 73 and 110 euros per megawatt hour, with a greater dependence on gas cycles, these being the ones that set the pool price, while the Strait of Hormuz enters again as a central element in the bill.
Along these lines and with an eye on the summer months, Antonio Aceituno, energy market analyst and CEO of Tempos Energía, explains that, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with Ras Laffan not fully operational until the end of August, and Europe's storage at 29.2% of its capacity, "this will be the most expensive summer since 2022".
With that context, the benchmark gas index in Europe would be in the range of 60-80 euros per megawatt-hour, “the monthly average of the pool for July and August would be between 100 and 120 euros per megawatt-hour, 57% more than in the summer of 2025 and triple what was paid in the month of April,” reports Aceituno.
The favorable scenario could present itself with the recovery of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz before summer and with Qatar's restart in Ras Laffan in May.
Thus, the geopolitical premium would begin to dilute and “the average reference gas price would tend to consolidate in the range of 35-42 euros per megawatt-hour and with the average pool price it would be situated between 70 and 76 euros per megawatt-hour for July and August,” indicates the CEO of Tempos Energía. The variable of Hormuz is not abstract, as indicated by the analysts of the consultancy.
“Between one scenario and another there is a 40 euro difference per megawatt hour; even in the best-case scenario, the summer months will cost between 75 and 90% more than April prices,” Aceituno compares.