The Canarian economy will grow by 2.5% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, in a context of deceleration but with a "positive inertia" supported by consumption and employment, according to a BBVA Research report, which conditions the figures on the rise in fuel prices as a result of the war in Iran.
The chief economist for Spain at BBVA Research, Miguel Cardoso, stated this Wednesday in a press conference that the archipelago will maintain a “still high” growth, which will place GDP in 2027 17% above 2019 levels, pre-pandemic, above the whole of Spain, which since covid has grown by an average of 15%.
Cardoso has stressed that this scenario occurs in an environment of “high uncertainty”, marked by the increase in oil prices, the cost of gas and tensions in energy markets, factors that can alter forecasts depending on their evolution.
In this regard, it has warned that a 10% increase in the price of oil could reduce GDP growth by about two tenths and add about three tenths to inflation, in line with the estimates included in the report.
“We have doubts about the intensity over time of this 'shock' and about the policies that will be taken to compensate for it, and that can introduce relevant changes in the environment,” he explained.
Despite this context, the economic head of BBVA Research has argued that the Canary Islands economy starts from a favorable position to face this scenario, with growth increasingly relying on domestic demand.
“We are seeing how the growth model is changing, from one more dependent on tourism towards another where internal demand is an important driver, particularly the consumption of Canarian households,” he/she has indicated.
The report confirms this change in pattern, by highlighting the greater resilience of residents' spending compared to that of tourists and the boost in public consumption, which grows around 3% in real terms.
Furthermore, employment continues to show strength, since Social Security affiliation is the “most thermal” indicator of the economy and reflects a positive evolution, especially in the urban areas of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and Santa Cruz de Tenerife.
About 35,000 new jobs until 2027
BBVA Research thus forecasts the creation of approximately 35,000 new jobs between 2025 and 2027, with an average unemployment rate of 12.5% next year.
However, the economist has pointed out that close to 40% of the increase in employment is explained by foreign individuals or those with dual nationality, a factor that is being key to sustain the growth of the labor market.
In parallel, the report identifies various bottlenecks that may limit the expansion of the Canary economy in the coming years, among them the lack of housing, the need to boost investment to increase productive capacity, and the difficulties in filling certain job positions.
“To maintain the pace of growth, an investment boost is needed that allows for increasing capacity levels,” Cardoso has indicated, who has also warned of the problem of access to housing as one of the main conditioning factors.
As for tourism, the report points to a slowdown in the main indicators, with drops in overnight stays and in the spending of foreign tourists, with a weaker evolution at the start of 2026.
In any case, the report warns that growth will continue, but at a more moderate pace, in an economy that maintains a solid base but that will have to face structural challenges to sustain its expansion in the medium term.
Among these challenges, BBVA Research highlights the need to improve productivity, ensure the sustainability of public finances and advance in the resolution of imbalances in the housing market, mainly from the public sector.
Nevertheless, Cardoso has insisted that the current data do not reflect a significant deterioration of activity nor of household consumption, despite the rising cost of energy.
“For the moment we do not see this introducing changes in household decisions,” he/she/it has stated, although he/she/it has warned that the impact could intensify if the current context of high prices prolongs.
The scenario, it has concluded, will largely depend on the duration of energy tensions, on their transmission to prices and wages and on their effect on the purchasing power of families and business margins.